Fears surrounding quantum computing are impacting Bitcoin’s value and hindering investment flows, highlighting a notable divide between developers and many investors.
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Developers Dismiss Immediate Threat
According to Bitcoin developer Adam Back of Blockstream, the capabilities of quantum machines are nowhere near breaking Bitcoin’s security measures. He stated the technology is still “ridiculously early” and faces significant research challenges.
Back predicts no genuine threat within the next ten years and argues that even if some elements of Bitcoin’s cryptography were breached, it wouldn’t result in an immediate collapse of the network.
He emphasized that security is not solely reliant on encryption to a degree that would allow for widespread theft on the blockchain.
I think the risks are currently negligible. This is still decades away; it’s ridiculously early, and there are massive R&D hurdles in every aspect of the applied physics research needed to determine if it’s feasible at a useful scale. However, it’s wise to be “quantum ready” and
— Adam Back (@adam3us) December 18, 2025
The Risk That Worries Some
Others in the community hold a differing viewpoint. Jameson Lopp, a prominent Bitcoin engineer, has raised alarms about the possible disastrous outcomes if quantum advancements enable attackers to undermine the ECDSA signature scheme that secures numerous wallets.
In such a case, forged signatures might be employed to redirect funds, leading to rapid erosion of user confidence. This caution has been voiced as a technical concern, rather than an immediate risk.
How should we address quantum-vulnerable coins in a future where quantum computing presents a threat? This panel from the Presidio Quantum Bitcoin Summit includes myself, @theblackmarble, and @cryptoquick.https://t.co/jhr6hjLXru
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) September 14, 2025
Investors Fear and Shift Capital
Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, noted that it is “extremely bearish” when leading developers seem to completely overlook any potential quantum risks.
He highlighted the significant gap between investor anxieties and developer perspectives. Reports indicate that certain capital is being withheld as major holders contemplate diversifying their portfolios into other assets.
Craig Warmke from the Bitcoin Policy Institute mentioned that perceived quantum risks have already led some holders to trim their Bitcoin holdings.
Quantum risk is limiting capital inflow into Bitcoin and prompting major holders to diversify their investments away from it.
When non-technical individuals express concerns, they occasionally use technically inaccurate terminology. It’s frustrating to see experts dismiss these worries with an… https://t.co/MtSNY7Ivg3
— Craig Warmke (@craigwarmke) December 18, 2025
Current Technologies are Insufficient
Most cryptographers agree that today’s quantum computers lack the power required to breach Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses. This evaluation is widely reported by analysts studying both fields.
Metaculus’s estimated median date for when quantum computers will compromise modern cryptography is 2040:https://t.co/Li8ni8A9Ox
There seems to be about a 20% chance this could occur before the end of 2030.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 27, 2025
Nonetheless, the timeline remains a topic of debate. According to reports from researchers and public statements from industry leaders like Vitalik Buterin, there exists a measurable possibility — approximately ~20% — that a machine capable of undermining today’s cryptography could emerge by 2030. This projection has sparked calls for proactive measures.
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Growing Demands for Preparedness
Reports indicate that financial institutions and national initiatives are heavily investing in quantum research, with AI tools accelerating progress in the field. Consequently, many crypto advocates insist that contingency strategies should be established well before any imminent threat materializes.
Recommendations include transitioning to quantum-resistant signature schemes and enhancing wallet practices to ensure funds are secured during upgrades. Some experts assert that banks and other significant targets may face threats sooner, potentially allowing the crypto sector to prepare adequately.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
