Bitcoin’s (BTC) price struggled once more to breach resistance at $94,000 on Tuesday, as market volatility increased ahead of the Fed’s rate cut announcement on Wednesday.
Key takeaways:
Polymarket indicates a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Dec. 10.
Should key support levels fail, BTC price could fall to $84,000.
96% likelihood of a 25 basis points reduction
The final US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting of the year commenced on Tuesday, with the interest rate policy decision anticipated on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.
Market watchers predict the Federal Reserve will implement a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the year’s third reduction.
Related: Bitcoin FOMO returns at $94K, but Fed could disrupt momentum
Polymarket reports a 96.8% chance that rates will drop to between 3.50% and 3.75%, while there’s a 3% chance rates will remain steady.
Nonetheless, any bullish reaction from a rate cut may already be factored into the current prices.
Bitcoin was sliding toward $92,000 on Wednesday as concerns grew over the impact of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments post-meeting, potentially destabilizing the market.
“The weak jobs data yesterday slightly dampened rate-cut expectations and unsettled TradFi markets; the focus is now on the Fed and wage figures,” Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC noted in a Wednesday update on X, adding:
“If the Fed takes a hawkish stance or wages remain robust, anticipate further sell-off.”
The market will closely monitor Powell’s remarks during the FOMC press conference for any changes in tone.
Currently, market speculation surrounds a “25bps rate cut, but the true tension will stem from Jerome Powell’s address,” market commentator Wess mentioned on Tuesday.
Key Bitcoin price levels to monitor
For Bitcoin to aim for higher highs beyond $100,000, it needs to convert the yearly support at $93,300 into reliable support.
To achieve this, BTC/USD must reclaim its position above the 50-day simple moving average (yellow line) at $98,000.
The psychological barrier of $100,000 is critical for BTC, as repeated failures at this level could initiate another downturn, reminiscent of February.
Above this level, a significant supply zone exists up to $108,000, where the 200-day SMA is located. This trendline was broken on Nov. 3, marking its first loss since April 22.
Bulls need to surpass this resistance to enhance the likelihood of BTC reaching $110,000.
On the flip side, bears will strive to uphold the $94,000 yearly open resistance, increasing the odds of dropping below $90,000.
A crucial focus area lies between $90,000 and the prior range lows at $87,500, seen on Sunday. Below that, the next target would be a retest of the Nov. 21 lows of $84,000, wiping out all gains accrued over the past three weeks.
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC observed BTC’s rise toward $98,000 but cautioned that a fall below $91,000 would be disastrous for the market.
“Bitcoin must hold at 91.5K now, otherwise expect chaos.”
The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap indicates a significant liquidity cluster between $93,000 and $96,000. Below the current spot price, the area to watch is $91,500.
This highlights potential price movement areas, depending on the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
