Key takeaways:
The bearish MACD cross and engulfing candle on the three-week Bitcoin chart indicate a cycle peak.
Analysts suggest that 558 days after the 2024 halving points towards an impending Bitcoin bull cycle top.
Some analysts believe BTC price still has potential, with $180,000 as a possibility.
On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) traded 3% lower, sitting 13% beneath its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6, with some traders indicating that this peak could signify the cycle top for BTC.
Bitcoin technicals indicate “top is in”
According to a crypto analyst, Bitcoin’s price action has confirmed a “bearish MACD crossover,” suggesting the end of the BTC bull run based on historical data.
Related: Fed signals ’end of QT’: What does it mean for Bitcoin price?
Analyst Jesse Olson stated in a post on X on Wednesday that there is a “pending bearish MACD crossover on Bitcoin’s three-week chart,” adding:
“The histogram also indicates a longer-term bearish divergence.”
The crossover was confirmed when the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) (blue wave)—a technical indicator used by traders to detect trend changes and momentum shifts—fell below the signal line (orange wave), as illustrated in the chart below.
It’s important to note that previous instances of this MACD bearish signal occurred at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, marking Bitcoin’s tops.
The same three-week chart displays a “bearish engulfing candle,” analogous to those seen at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.
These, along with “multiple other alerts, imply that the top is reached,” Jesse Olson said in another post on Thursday.
These include a drop in network activity, indicating reduced on-chain demand. According to data from Nansen, the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network fell by 30% in October, from 632,915 to 447,225.
A declining number of daily active addresses suggests fading network engagement and diminishing user demand, often foreshadowing price corrections or long-term consolidation.
Bitcoin’s impending cycle high
Pseudonymous trader and investor Mister Crypto supports the cycle top hypothesis by asserting that Bitcoin has reached a historically peakable point in its four-year halving cycle.
Reviewing historical Bitcoin halving cycles from 2012 and 2016, a pattern emerges where the price steadily builds momentum and usually peaks between 518 and 580 days post-halving, as depicted in the chart below.
With 558 days since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, BTC currently lies within +40 days of the historical peak window of 518-580 days.
“We are at a time when Bitcoin has historically peaked out,” Mister Crypto posted on X, asking:
“Will this time be different?”
Another analyst, CryptoBird, mentioned that Bitcoin might only have a few days left for price growth in the cycle, particularly if it adheres to historical patterns following past halvings.
In a recent Bitcoin analysis, CryptoBird remarked that Bitcoin is “consolidating before an explosion, and the top window is open.”
Final leg waiting room.
BTC is rangebound at $112K, ETFs rising, fear fading. It’s consolidating before explosion and top window is open.
You’re not ready for what’s coming.
(Thread)🧵 pic.twitter.com/g35tkf9tG2
— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) October 29, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, some analysts, including BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes, argue that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer relevant, positing that prices are now influenced more by monetary policy and liquidity than by halvings.
Others believe that the impact of halvings is diminishing, suggesting that a positive interest rate cycle, growing institutional adoption through ETFs, and Bitcoin treasury companies’ maturation as a mainstream asset could lead to increased upside potential for Bitcoin in 2026.
Is Bitcoin’s upside truly finished?
While some assert that the Bitcoin four-year cycle no longer determines the bull run duration, others think BTC still has potential for further gains based on technical indicators.
Analyst Jelle noted that Bitcoin has “formed a higher low, and the range holds,” referencing BTC’s price action in the daily time frame.
“Reclaim the $116K region, and the excitement returns.”
Another analyst, Mags, highlighted that Bitcoin is forming a “bullish megaphone pattern,” which has historically led to upward breakouts.
“A significant breakout is imminent.”
#Bitcoin – Every bullish pattern on BTC has led to an upside breakout in the past.
Right now, price is forming a bullish megaphone pattern.
A significant breakout is imminent. pic.twitter.com/45z3WvRwKa
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 30, 2025
Cointelegraph noted that the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple indicates that BTC remains near “oversold” levels, implying that the $180,000 target is still attainable.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
