Historically, Hedera Hashgraph’s native token HBAR has shown mixed results in October. Over the past six years, its performance has been evenly balanced between gains and losses.
The highlight was in 2021, when HBAR surged 20.3%, followed by modest increases of 3.98% in 2022 and 5.40% in 2023. On the downside, October has also seen significant drops, including a 19.4% decline in 2024 and consecutive decreases in 2019 and 2020. As downside risks mount, the crucial question remains: how will HBAR fare in October 2025?
HBAR Struggles After Early September Gains
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September began positively for HBAR, buoyed by a market uptrend that elevated its price to a monthly high of $0.2551 on September 13.
However, as market sentiment waned, the token entered a consolidation phase from September 14 to 18 before bears regained dominance.
Since then, HBAR has experienced a nearly 16% decline, wiping out most of its earlier gains. The daily chart indicates through the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator that the token is firmly in a bearish trend.
As of now, the MACD line (blue) lies below the signal line (orange), indicating that bears are in control.
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The MACD indicator identifies trends and momentum in price movement, helping traders recognize potential buy or sell signals through crossovers between the MACD and signal lines.
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When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it indicates bullish momentum and the potential for upward price movement. In contrast, when the MACD line remains below the signal line—as seen with HBAR—it signals that bearish momentum prevails.
This scenario suggests that unless a bullish catalyst arises, the selling pressure observed in late September could persist into October.
Compounding this pressure, market sentiment surrounding HBAR remains decidedly negative. According to Santiment’s data, it currently registers at -0.719.
Weighted sentiment measures discussions about a cryptocurrency across social media and online platforms, analyzing the volume of mentions and the ratio of positive versus negative comments.
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When weighted sentiment is above zero, it signals more positive comments about the cryptocurrency than negative, suggesting favorable public perception.
Conversely, a negative reading reflects more criticism than support, indicating bearish sentiment. Hence, HBAR’s continuing negative weighted sentiment highlights the broader market bias against the token as October approaches, potentially prolonging its price difficulties.
HBAR Futures Traders Turn Bearish
Among futures traders, the token’s declining long/short ratio reinforces this bearish sentiment. Currently, it stands at 0.84 and shows a downward trend.
The long/short ratio represents the balance between bullish and bearish positions in an asset’s futures market. A ratio above 1 suggests more traders are positioned for price increases (longs) than declines (shorts), indicating positive sentiment.
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In contrast, a ratio below 1 indicates that bearish bets outweigh bullish ones, suggesting that traders foresee further downside. With HBAR’s ratio significantly below 1, its futures traders are predominantly betting on losses over recovery.
HBAR Faces October Test
These trends contribute to the bearish pressure surrounding the token, making it likely that October will continue HBAR’s losing streak unless a notable shift in sentiment occurs.
HBAR may extend its weekly decline and drop toward $0.1654 if bearish sentiment intensifies.
Conversely, a change in sentiment and renewed buying activity could serve as the trigger for a short-term recovery. In that case, HBAR’s price might rise above $0.2266 and aim for $0.2453.
