While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not unfold precisely as in prior instances, the idea is not entirely obsolete, according to a crypto executive.
“I believe the four-year cycle is likely to persist in some form,” said Saad Ahmed, head of the APAC region at the crypto exchange Gemini, during an interview with Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore.
“It fundamentally arises from the excitement people experience, leading them to overextend, followed by a crash, after which the market corrects to a stable state,” Ahmed explained.
Nonetheless, Ahmed noted that increased institutional participation in the crypto sector may help mitigate some volatility. “While some volatility will likely diminish, a cycle will still be present, as it’s essentially driven by human emotions,” he said.
The discussion regarding the relevance of the four-year cycle to Bitcoin has been a hot topic within the crypto community lately.
On August 21, the crypto analytics firm Glassnode stated that Bitcoin’s recent price movements might still align with its historical four-year halving cycle.
October may represent Bitcoin’s cycle peak if patterns hold
However, if historical trends continue, the peak for Bitcoin’s cycle could occur this month, indicated crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
In July, he stated that if the current cycle resembles that of 2020, the market is likely to peak in October, roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
“We have a very brief window for price expansion remaining,” Rekt remarked.
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This comes as Bitcoin (BTC) experienced an 11.5% increase over the past week, rising to $123,850, just shy of its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan recently expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s price adhering to the historical cycle.
“I bet 2026 will be a positive year,” Hougan stated on July 26. “Overall, I anticipate a favorable few years ahead,” Hougan added.
October 1 marked the start of Q4, historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, yielding an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass.
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