Essential Insights:
Ether’s price previously dropped 60% following a bearish cross that is now resurfacing.
ETH must maintain a value above $4,000 to prevent further losses.
Ether’s (ETH) MACD indicator has issued a “sell” signal on its weekly chart, a condition that has historically signaled significant price declines.
Past Signals Resulted in 46%-60% Drops in ETH Price
In early 2025, Ether’s MACD indicator exhibited a bearish signal, leading to a price drop of over 60% within weeks.
A similar pattern is emerging in October, heightening the chances of a more substantial decline in the near future.
Related: BitMine seems to buy the dip as ETH falls 20% from its peak
The MACD is a widely recognized momentum indicator used in technical analysis, assisting traders in assessing the strength, direction, and duration of a trend in an asset’s price.
The indicator has produced a bearish cross on the weekly chart, as illustrated in the figure below.
Historical data indicates that ETH often experiences sharp declines when the MACD line (blue) crosses beneath the signal line (orange), with losses of 46% in mid-2024 and 60% in Q1 2025.
“Not pleased with this Ethereum weekly MACD cross to red after 22 weeks of green,” noted analyst CRYPTO Damus in a Tuesday post on X, adding that each of the last three times a bearish cross took place was followed by notable ETH price declines.
Analyst Titan of Crypto warned his audience to be “ready for any scenario” once the signal is confirmed.
Is #Ethereum shifting momentum? 👀
After breaking above the range highs, $ETH seems to be re-entering the weekly range.
Although the week hasn’t closed yet, the MACD is currently crossing bearish.
Confirmation needed, but one must be prepared for any scenario. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/Zi6d68jMdr
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) October 16, 2025
Additional ETH price analysts indicate that the altcoin may continue its retracement to test lower support levels before attempting another rally toward $5,000.
Bulls Must Maintain ETH Price Above $4,000
Ether’s price is nearing a crucial moment as it tests the $4,000 support level, which it has maintained since reclaiming it in early August.
Bulls need to keep the ETH price above this critical point to enhance the chances of resuming its upward trajectory.
It’s worth noting that the last time Ether fell below this level in December 2021, it saw a subsequent drop of 78%, reaching a low around $880 during the 2022 bear market.
“As long as ETH price remains above the $3,899 support level, a direct upward movement is still possible,” stated Elliott Wave analyst Man of Bitcoin in an X post, adding:
“A breach below this level would indicate a larger correction is in motion.”
Trader Koala remarked that ETH is currently experiencing a “weekly breakdown and trend loss” after breaching support at $4,200.
“Downward acceleration will likely occur sooner rather than later.”
This is a weekly breakdown and trend loss.
This is not bullish chop (that is cope from the bulls)
We will likely see downward acceleration sooner than later.
Weekly range low deviation?
Maybe.
But I wouldn’t bet on that. pic.twitter.com/4Fq2OsOO7j
— Trader Koala (@trader_koala) October 16, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, Ether bears are currently dominating and are focused on driving the price below the lower boundary of a descending channel at $3,745 on the daily timeline.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every trading move carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
