Key insights:
Ether’s long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss indicator indicates the price has entered the “belief” phase.
The market value to realized value suggests ETH is undervalued, potentially moving towards $5,500.
Ether’s rounded bottom pattern points to a target of $12,100.
Ether (ETH) price has surged over 240% since April, achieving a record high exceeding $5,000 on Sunday. Consequently, investors’ profitability has reached levels reminiscent of past bull cycles, indicating that the ETH market is entering the “belief” phase, enhancing the likelihood of a prolonged rally.
Ethereum investor sentiment in “belief”
Onchain data reveals similarities between the current phase of the Ether market and earlier bull cycles.
Ether’s long-term holder (LTH) net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator has transitioned into the “belief-denial” (green) zone, a state historically preceding significant price increases, noted analyst Gert van Lagen in an X post on Monday.
The LTH NUPL assesses the difference between the relative unrealized profits and losses of investors holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days.
Related: Bitcoin whales are swapping BTC for Ether as traders project ETH reaching $5.5K next
This zone is crucial as it indicates that ETH has not entered the euphoric phase (blue) generally linked to cycle peaks.
In past cycles, the shift from belief to euphoria has aligned with major price surges.
For this to happen, ETH price “still needs to rise,” van Lagen elaborated, adding:
“$10K and $20K $ETH are not impossible.”
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio further confirms the bullish narrative. With a current daily reading of 2.08, significantly less than the peak of 3.8 in 2021 and 6.49 in 2017, this metric suggests Ethereum remains comparatively undervalued.
This lower MVRV ratio hints at muted profit-taking and increased potential for ongoing price growth.
Ether’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands also imply that ETH price has more room to grow before the unrealized profits held by investors reach an extreme level, represented by the upper MVRV band at $5,500, as illustrated in the chart below.
ETH price analysts aiming for $10,000 and more
However, the price may rise even higher from a technical viewpoint. Ether’s price action has validated a megaphone pattern, a chart formation that has been developing on the weekly candle chart since December 2023, as identified by crypto analyst Jelle.
“This bullish megaphone has a target of $10,000, and $ETH has overcome every resistance level in its path,” the analyst stated in an X post on Monday, adding:
“Clear skies ahead. Bring it on.”
Another analyst, Mickybull Crypto, supported this view, indicating that “ETH has performed as expected,” regarding Ether’s rise to all-time highs above $5,000 on Sunday.
The analyst further noted their cycle targets for Ether are between $7,000 and $11,000.
The ETH/USD pair exhibited strength after breaking past a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart. The price retested the neckline of the pattern at $4,100 to confirm the breakout.
The bulls will now aim to drive the price towards the technical target of the prevailing chart pattern at $12,130, representing a 161% increase from the current price.
Other analysts project that Ether could achieve $12,000 and even higher by 2025, citing potential interest rate cuts, capital inflows through spot Ethereum ETFs, and robust demand from ETH treasury companies.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading movement carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
