Highlights:
Ether’s price has recently dropped 60% following a bearish cross that is currently forming again.
ETH needs to maintain a position above $4,000 to prevent further declines.
The MACD indicator for Ether (ETH) has issued a “sell” signal on the weekly chart, a signal historically linked to significant price falls.
Past signals resulted in 46%-60% drops in ETH price
The MACD indicator for Ether showed a bearish signal in early 2025, coinciding with a drop of over 60% in the ETH spot price in just weeks.
A similar trend appears to be developing in October, raising the possibility of a more severe decline shortly.
Related: BitMine seems to be buying the dip as ETH experiences a 20% drop from its peak
The MACD is a well-known momentum indicator in technical analysis that helps traders determine the strength, direction, and duration of price trends in assets.
This indicator has produced a bearish cross on the weekly chart, as illustrated below.
Past occurrences indicate that ETH often sees sharp declines when the MACD line (blue) falls below the signal line (orange). Losses of 46% occurred in mid-2024, while a 60% drop was seen in Q1 2025.
“I’m not fond of this Ethereum weekly MACD cross to red after 22 weeks of green,” noted analyst CRYPTO Damus in a post on X, highlighting that the last three bearish crosses were followed by significant ETH price decreases.
Another analyst, Titan of Crypto, advised followers to stay “prepared for any scenario” once the signal is confirmed.
Is #Ethereum shifting momentum? 👀
After breaking above the range highs, $ETH seems to be re-entering the weekly range.
Although the week hasn’t closed yet, the MACD is currently crossing bearish.
Confirmation needed, but one must be prepared for any scenario. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/Zi6d68jMdr
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) October 16, 2025
Other ETH price analysts suggest the altcoin could continue its retracement to reassess lower support levels before embarking on another upward move toward $5,000.
Bulls need to keep ETH above $4,000
Ether’s price is at a crucial point as it tests the $4,000 support level, a zone it has maintained since reclaiming it in early August.
Bulls must ensure that ETH stays above this threshold to enhance the chances of rekindling its uptrend.
It’s worth noting that the last time Ether fell below this level in December 2021, it led to a staggering 78% price drop, hitting around $880 during the 2022 bear market.
“As long as ETH price remains above the $3,899 support level, a direct move upwards seems feasible,” stated Elliott Wave analyst Man of Bitcoin in an X post, adding:
“A break below this level would suggest a larger correction is in motion.”
Trader Koala remarked that ETH is currently experiencing a “weekly breakdown and trend loss” after slipping below the $4,200 support.
“We can expect downward acceleration sooner rather than later.”
This is a weekly breakdown and trend loss.
This isn’t bullish chop (just cope from the bulls)
We may see downward acceleration soon.
Weekly range low deviation?
Maybe.
But I wouldn’t bet on that. pic.twitter.com/4Fq2OsOO7j
— Trader Koala (@trader_koala) October 16, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, Ether bears are currently in control, focusing on driving the price below the lower boundary of a descending channel at $3,745 on the daily time frame.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading decisions carry risk, and readers should do their own due diligence when choosing how to proceed.
