Key takeaways:
Ether’s long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss indicator indicates the price has entered the “belief” phase.
The market value to realized value suggests ETH is undervalued, with potential to rise toward $5,500.
Ether’s rounded bottom pattern targets $12,100.
Ether (ETH) price has surged more than 240% since April, reaching a record high above $5,000 on Sunday. Consequently, investors’ profitability has risen to levels reminiscent of past bull cycles, indicating that the ETH market is transitioning into the “belief” phase, enhancing the likelihood of a continued rally.
Ethereum investor sentiment in “belief”
Onchain data highlights similarities between the current Ether market phase and previous bull cycles.
Ether’s long-term holder (LTH) net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator has transitioned into the “belief-denial” (green) zone, a stage that historically precedes significant price rallies, noted popular analyst Gert van Lagen in an X post on Monday.
The LTH NUPL measures the difference between average unrealized profit and average unrealized loss of investors holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days.
Related: Bitcoin whales exchange BTC for Ether as trader anticipates ETH at $5.5K next
This zone indicates significant relevance, suggesting ETH has not yet reached the euphoric phase (blue) typically linked to cycle peaks.
In earlier market cycles, the shift from belief to euphoria has been accompanied by major price spikes.
For this to occur, ETH price “still needs to progress further,” van Lagen added, stating:
“$10K and $20K $ETH are not out of the question.”Ethereum LTH NUPL. Source: Glassnode
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio further supports the bullish outlook. With a current daily reading of 2.08, significantly below a peak of 3.8 in 2021 and 6.49 in 2017, the metric indicates Ethereum remains relatively undervalued.
This decreased MVRV ratio reflects limited profit-taking and highlights the potential for ongoing price growth.
ETH MVRV ratio. Source: Glassnode
Ether’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands also indicate that ETH price still has more room for upward movement before the unrealized profit held by investors hits an extreme level marked by the uppermost MVRV band at $5,500, as illustrated in the chart below.
Ethereum: MVRV extreme variation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
ETH price analysts target $10,000 and beyond
However, the price may go even higher from a technical standpoint. Ether’s price action has confirmed a megaphone, a chart pattern evolving on the weekly candle chart since December 2023, as noted by crypto analyst Jelle.
“This bullish megaphone has a target of $10,000, and $ETH has conquered every resistance level in its path,” the analyst stated in an X post on Monday, further adding:
“Clear skies ahead. Bring it on.”ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Jelle
Another analyst, Mickybull Crypto, echoed this sentiment, indicating that “ETH delivered as expected,” referencing Ether’s ascent to all-time highs above $5,000 on Sunday.
The analyst expressed that their cycle targets for Ether remain at $7,000-$11,000.
The ETH/USD pair showcased strength after breaking above a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart. The price confirmed the breakout by retesting the neckline of the pattern at $4,100.
The bulls will now focus on pushing the price toward the technical target of the prevailing chart pattern set at $12,130, representing a 161% increase from the current price.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Other analysts also anticipate that Ether could reach $12,000 and even higher by 2025, citing potential interest rate cuts, capital inflows through spot Ethereum ETFs, and strong demand from ETH treasury companies.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
