Key takeaways:
The net unrealized profit/loss indicator for long-term Ether holders indicates that the price has entered the “belief” phase.
The market value to realized value suggests ETH is undervalued, with potential to rise toward $5,500.
Ether’s rounded bottom pattern projects a target of $12,100.
Ether (ETH) has surged over 240% since April, hitting a record above $5,000 on Sunday. Consequently, investor profitability has reached levels reminiscent of past bull cycles, suggesting the ETH market is in the “belief” phase, which may lead to a prolonged rally.
Ethereum investor sentiment in “belief”
Onchain data reveals parallels between the current Ether market phase and previous bull cycles.
The long-term holder (LTH) net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator has moved into the “belief-denial” (green) zone, a position historically associated with significant price surges, stated analyst Gert van Lagen in an X post on Monday.
The LTH NUPL reflects the difference between the unrealized profit and loss of investors holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days.
Related: Bitcoin whales convert BTC to Ether as trader forecasts ETH at $5.5K
This zone is crucial as it indicates that ETH has not yet hit the euphoric phase (blue) typically seen at market peaks.
In prior cycles, the shift from belief to euphoria has aligned with major price increases.
For this to happen, ETH price “must still climb higher,” argued van Lagen, adding:
“$10K and $20K $ETH are not out of reach.”
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio reinforces the bullish outlook. With a daily reading of 2.08, notably lower than the 3.8 peak in 2021 and 6.49 in 2017, this metric indicates Ethereum’s relative undervaluation.
This lower MVRV suggests limited profit-taking and a potential for sustained price growth.
Furthermore, Ether’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands imply that the price has more room for growth before reaching an extreme level represented by the upper MVRV band at $5,500, as illustrated in the chart below.
ETH price analysts target $10,000 and beyond
However, technical analysis suggests even higher price potential. Ether’s price action has confirmed a megaphone chart pattern forming on the weekly candle chart since December 2023, as pointed out by crypto analyst Jelle.
“This bullish megaphone targets $10,000, and $ETH has surpassed every resistance level,” the analyst noted in an X post on Monday, adding:
“Clear skies ahead. Bring it on.”
Analyst Mickybull Crypto also supported this perspective, claiming that “ETH performed as anticipated,” reflecting on Ether’s ascent to record highs above $5,000 on Sunday.
The analyst indicated their cycle targets for Ether range from $7,000 to $11,000.
The ETH/USD pair exhibited strength after breaking above a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart, retesting the neckline at $4,100 to affirm the breakout.
The bulls will now aim to elevate the price toward the technical objective of the chart pattern at $12,130, indicating a 161% increase from the current price.
Other analysts predict that Ether could reach $12,000 or higher in 2025, driven by potential interest rate cuts, capital inflows from spot Ethereum ETFs, and sustained demand from ETH treasury companies.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before deciding.
