El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele highlighted prediction markets as speculation rises that the country’s Bitcoin assets could reach $1 billion by year-end.
Bukele took to X on Wednesday to discuss Kalshi’s prediction market, which reflects growing betting interest in El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings achieving $1 billion by late 2025.
“I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele stated, as the odds for El Salvador reaching a $1 billion Bitcoin benchmark before November rose from 20% to 38% on Kalshi.
Shortly after Bukele’s tweet, competing platform Polymarket offered a similar bet, suggesting the odds of reaching a $1 billion Bitcoin mark by December 2025 were at 43%.
Kalshi monitoring the odds since mid-August
Kalshi’s prediction market regarding El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been operational since mid-August, with the “before December 2025” bet consistently near 24% and “before November 2025” around 18% until recently.
After peaking at 38%, the “before November 2025” bet fell to 27%, while the “before December 2025” bet stabilized around 35%.
Kalshi’s prediction market on “When will El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings hit $1 billion?” Source: Kalshi
While Kalshi had been analyzing the probabilities of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 billion for several days, Polymarket only launched a similar betting market after Bukele’s announcement.
Related: Bitcoin investment banks arriving in El Salvador — Government regulator
“New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X shortly after Bukele referenced Kalshi’s market on Thursday.
Polymarket launched a betting market “Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by…?” on Wednesday. Source: Polymarket
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for comments on their market listing policies but received no responses by the publication time.
Debate surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin assets
While Kalshi and Polymarket aim to take advantage of rising optimism regarding El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings, neither platform created betting markets related to a past controversy.
In July, El Salvador’s central bank president, Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes, and finance minister, Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina, declared that the country had ceased Bitcoin purchases after signing a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Related: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele can now run for election indefinitely
Despite these assertions being part of El Salvador’s official communications with the IMF, Bukele and El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office persisted in tweeting about new Bitcoin acquisitions, with current holdings reported at 6,282 Bitcoin ($709 million).
Bitcoin holdings in El Salvador’s BTC treasury. Source: Bitcoin.gob.sv
As of now, neither Juan Carlos Reyes, president of El Salvador’s National Commission on Digital Assets, nor any other contacted individuals have replied to Cointelegraph’s inquiry from July aimed at clarifying the controversy.
This news emerged alongside the surge in prediction markets, with former Polymarket and Kalshi executive Toni Gemayel announcing a $15 million investment round from backers like Coinbase Ventures for the prediction market platform Clearing Company.
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