President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador highlighted prediction markets as bets increase that the nation’s Bitcoin reserves will reach $1 billion by the end of the year.
On Wednesday, Bukele took to X to share insights on Kalshi’s prediction market, which indicates a rise in betting activity concerning El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings reaching $1 billion by the end of 2025.
“I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele remarked, as the likelihood of El Salvador achieving a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone before November soared from 20% to 38% on Kalshi.
Shortly after Bukele’s tweet, competing platform Polymarket introduced a similar bet, noting that the odds of reaching a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 were at 43%.
Kalshi Monitoring the Odds Since Mid-August
Kalshi’s prediction market regarding El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been operational since mid-August, with the “before December 2025” wager staying around 24% and “before November 2025” lingering near 18% until recently.
Following the spike to 38%, the “before November 2025” wager fell to 27%, while the “before December 2025” bet remained around 35%.
While Kalshi has been tracking the odds for several days, Polymarket only launched a similar market after Bukele’s tweet.
Related: Bitcoin investment banks arriving in El Salvador — Government regulator
“New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X just hours after Bukele highlighted Kalshi’s market on Thursday.
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for statements concerning their market listing policies but had not received any feedback by publication time.
Debate Surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings
While Kalshi and Polymarket are poised to benefit from the increasing optimism regarding El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings, neither platform has established betting markets related to earlier controversies.
In July, El Salvador’s central bank president, Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes, and finance minister, Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina, asserted that the nation halted Bitcoin purchases after entering into a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Related: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele can now run for election indefinitely
Despite these assertions being included in El Salvador’s official communications with the IMF, Bukele and the nation’s Bitcoin Office continued to tweet about new Bitcoin acquisitions, with current holdings reported at 6,282 Bitcoin ($709 million) here.
Currently, neither Juan Carlos Reyes, the president of El Salvador’s National Commission on Digital Assets, nor other contacted officials have replied to Cointelegraph’s July request for clarification regarding the controversy.
This news emerged as prediction markets gained traction, with former executives from Polymarket and Kalshi, such as Toni Gemayel, announcing a $15 million investment round from backers including Coinbase Ventures for their new prediction market platform, Clearing Company.
Magazine: 3 people who unexpectedly became crypto millionaires… and one who didn’t
