The cryptocurrency market appears to be in a “waiting room” phase prior to the next stage of price discovery, a trend that may allow institutional capital to extend the historical four-year cycle, according to experts in the industry.
As the crypto market anticipates its next catalyst, the liquidity dynamics of the “slow business cycle” could push the traditional four-year cycle into the first or second quarter of 2026, states Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“Many critical components of the crypto ecosystem are poised to launch,” the well-known analyst noted in a Friday X post, adding:
“Our analysis suggests (probabilistically) that the cycle may extend into Q1 2026 and potentially Q2 2026 due to the slow business cycle generating liquidity for an extended period.”
“People must cultivate patience. The trajectory is clear…but never expect perfection in timing,” he elaborated.
Pal utilizes the business cycle score as a macroeconomic model to gauge the current phase of the global economy’s broader cycle.
“Raoul’s description of crypto being in the ‘waiting room’ aligns with the current market behavior,” stated Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at the real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken.
The recent downturn “was driven not by onchain dynamics but by political tensions involving President Trump and the Federal Reserve,” the analyst explained to Cointelegraph, adding:
“What reinforces the idea of an extended cycle into 2026 is that institutional positioning remains bullish.”
Institutional investments in the two leading cryptocurrencies remain strong despite ongoing “tug-of-war” over interest rate policies, according to the analyst.
In the meantime, stablecoin inflows on Binance exceeded $1.65 billion, which could serve as a potential indicator for renewed cryptocurrency investments, as stablecoins are the primary funding tools for traders.
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SOL, SUI, DOGE may be next to exit the crypto “waiting room” — Raoul Pal
Several leading altcoins in the cryptocurrency market are gearing up to exit the “waiting room” for the final parabolic stage of the rally, with the Solana (SOL) token poised to be the “next to exit,” according to Pal, who shared the chart below.
The chart illustrates an ascending triangle pattern, recognized by technical traders as a bullish continuation pattern, indicating a potential price breakout upon validation.
Following the Solana token, Sui (SUI) is next in line to gain traction, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE), as the larger cryptocurrencies outside the top 10, also categorized as “OTHERS,” are expected to start rallying, Pal predicted.
Meanwhile, the XRP (XRP) token is currently “in the process of full porting,” while the largest altcoins beyond the top 10 might take “longer to launch.”
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Two months ago, Pal mentioned that the current crypto market cycle resembles patterns from 2017, when Bitcoin’s (BTC) price surged over 1,255% throughout the year.
“It’s eerily similar to 2017,” Pal remarked in a video on June 19, predicting a longer crypto cycle than previous years, as a weakening US dollar may suggest that the crypto cycle still has room to grow.
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