Crypto traders have yet to display sufficient fear on social media to indicate a market bottom, according to a crypto analyst who proposes that Bitcoin might still dip to around $75,000.
“It seems quite alluring to approach that level more closely,” stated Maksim Balashevich, founder of the crypto market sentiment platform Santiment, in a video released on YouTube on Friday.
A decline to that extent would indicate an approximate 14.77% decrease from Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price of $88,350, according to CoinMarketCap.
Balashevich shared that his reluctance stems from noticing significant optimism online regarding a near-term reversal of the downtrend, which he claims is typically not observed when a genuine market bottom is forming.
“The crowd isn’t fearful enough to signal a bottom,” Santiment indicated in a report released on the same day.
Balashevich expresses concern over overly optimistic comments
“In one specific crowd or retail-dominated forum, most discussions revolve around Bank of Japan cutting rates, and bears are trapped, leading to a belief that we will continue rising from here,” he noted.
“These kinds of remarks are not what I wish to see,” he remarked, adding that under different conditions, he would feel “very confident” in declaring a market bottom.
Japan’s central bank raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% on Friday, a maneuver historically linked to approximately 20% corrections in Bitcoin.
Nonetheless, Balashevich stated that a decrease to this price level could offer a “very good setup” for traders.
On Thursday, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, asserted that Bitcoin may take a “year off” in 2026, with prices potentially dropping to around $65,000.
Conversely, other analysts, like Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan, predict that 2026 will be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
Crypto market indicators contradict Balashevich’s outlook
While Balashevich remains skeptical that the market has reached its bottom, crypto market indicators point in a different direction.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, measuring overall sentiment in the crypto market, has remained in “Extreme Fear” territory since December 14. On Sunday, the Index reported an “Extreme Fear” score of 20.
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Additional indicators suggest a risk-off approach among crypto traders.
The Altcoin Season Index, which evaluates the performance of the top 100 altcoins in relation to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, recorded a “Bitcoin Season” level of 17 out of 100 on Saturday.
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