The cryptocurrency market seems to be in a “waiting room” before entering the next price discovery phase, a trend that might see institutional investments extend the historical four-year cycle, according to industry observers.
As the crypto market looks for its next catalyst, the dynamics of the “slow business cycle” could push the traditional four-year cycle into the first or second quarter of 2026, as noted by Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“Key components of the crypto ecosystem are poised to launch,” the well-known analyst mentioned in a Friday X post, adding:
“Our analysis implies (in probabilistic terms) that the cycle could extend into Q1 2026 and possibly Q2 2026 due to prolonged liquidity from a slow business cycle.”
“Patience is essential. The path is evident… but one should never expect perfection tick for tick,” he clarified.
Pal employs a business cycle score as a macroeconomic model to track the current phase of the global economy.
“Raoul’s characterization of crypto being in the ‘waiting room’ aligns with current market behaviors,” stated Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at the asset tokenization platform Brickken.
The recent decline “didn’t stem from on-chain dynamics but rather from political tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:
“What supports the theory of an extended cycle into 2026 is that institutional positioning remains bullish.”
Institutional investments in the lead cryptocurrencies continue to be strong despite the “tug-of-war” over interest rate decisions, the analyst remarked.
Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows on Binance have exceeded $1.65 billion, which might indicate an impending rise in cryptocurrency investments, as stablecoins serve as primary funding tools for traders.
Related: Hyperliquid whales net $48M on 200% XPL rally, amid manipulation allegations
SOL, SUI, DOGE may be next to exit the crypto “waiting room” — Raoul Pal
Some of the major altcoins in the cryptocurrency market are gearing up to leave the “waiting room” ahead of the final parabolic stage of the rally, with the Solana (SOL) token viewed as the “next to exit,” according to Pal, who shared the following chart.
The chart illustrates an ascending triangle pattern, recognized by technical analysts as a bullish continuation pattern, indicating a potential price breakout when confirmed.
Following the Solana token, Sui (SUI) is expected to be the next altcoin to gain momentum, succeeded by Dogecoin (DOGE), once the largest cryptocurrencies outside the top 10, also referred to as “OTHERS,” begin to rise, predicted Pal.
Meanwhile, the XRP (XRP) token is currently “undergoing full porting,” while altcoins outside the top 10 may take “longer to ramp up.”
Related: Kanye West’s YZY token: 51,000 traders lost $74M, while 11 netted $1M
Two months prior, Pal mentioned the ongoing crypto market cycle reflects patterns reminiscent of 2017, when Bitcoin’s (BTC) price soared over 1,255% within the year.
“It’s eerily similar to 2017,” Pal commented in a video on June 19, predicting a prolonged crypto cycle compared to previous years, as a declining US dollar might suggest that the crypto cycle is still far from its peak.
Magazine: Altcoin season 2025 is almost here… but the rules have changed
