The cryptocurrency market appears to be in a “holding pattern” before the next stage of price discovery, with industry experts suggesting that institutional investment could prolong the typical four-year cycle.
As the crypto landscape awaits its next trigger, the “slow business cycle’s” liquidity dynamics might extend this traditional cycle into the first or second quarter of 2026, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“Many key components of the crypto ecosystem are poised to launch,” the well-known analyst noted in a recent X post, adding:
“Our work indicates (in probabilistic terms) that the cycle extends into Q1 2026 and potentially Q2 2026 due to the slow business cycle enabling liquidity for a longer period.”
“Patience is key. The route is clear… just don’t expect perfection on every tick,” he elaborated.
Pal employs the business cycle score as a macroeconomic framework to monitor the current phase of the global economy’s overarching cycle.
“Raoul’s perspective of crypto being in a ‘holding pattern’ reflects the current market behavior,” commented Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken.
The recent downturn “resulted not from on-chain factors but from political conflicts involving President Trump and the Federal Reserve,” the analyst shared with Cointelegraph, elaborating:
“This supports the theory of an extended cycle heading into 2026, as institutional positioning remains optimistic.”
Institutional investments in the two leading cryptocurrencies have remained strong despite the ongoing “tug-of-war” regarding interest rate policies, the analyst indicated.
Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows to Binance exceeded $1.65 billion, which could signal renewed cryptocurrency investments, as stablecoins are the primary funding instruments for traders.
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SOL, SUI, DOGE could be next to exit the crypto “holding pattern” — Raoul Pal
Several leading altcoins in the cryptocurrency market appear to be ready to exit the “holding pattern” and enter a final parabolic rally, with the Solana (SOL) token identified as the “next to move,” per Pal, who shared the accompanying chart.
The chart displays an ascending triangle pattern, regarded by technical analysts as a bullish continuation pattern, indicating a possible price breakout upon confirmation.
Following the Solana token, Sui (SUI) is expected to gain traction next, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE), as the largest cryptocurrencies outside the top 10, currently grouped as “OTHERS,” begin to rally, as predicted by Pal.
Meanwhile, the XRP (XRP) token is “in the process of full porting,” while larger altcoins outside the top 10 may take “longer to launch.”
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Two months prior, Pal noted that the current crypto market cycle resembles patterns from 2017, when Bitcoin’s (BTC) price sharply increased by over 1,255% that year.
“It’s strikingly similar to 2017,” Pal stated in a video on June 19, predicting a more prolonged crypto cycle than in past years, as a weakening US dollar may suggest that the crypto cycle is still far from reaching its peak.
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