The cryptocurrency market maintained a positive vibe on Thursday, with bitcoin hovered near its weekly peak around $93,500, while ether climbed to $3,200 following its Fusaka upgrade.
The Fear and Greed index rose to 27/100, moving out of the “extreme fear” territory as some optimism reenters the market.
However, both bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies continue to exhibit downward trends since early October, forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. For a trend reversal, bitcoin needs to establish highs above $98,500, indicating a significant bullish shift.
The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index gained 1.13% in the last 24 hours as the market built on Tuesday’s rally.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin’s options-based 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, dropped to 48.44%, the lowest level since Nov. 14, reversing the surge to 65% on Nov. 21, when spot prices on some exchanges nearly hit $80,000.
- This decline invalidates the bullish trendline formed in September, suggesting a low-volatility atmosphere ahead that may support the bullish case for the spot price.
- The ether volatility index decreased to 72%, which is its lowest since Nov. 3.
- On Deribit, BTC puts continue to command a premium over calls across all time frames, while ether options show a slight bullish sentiment post the August 2026 expiry. This indicates ongoing demand for protective puts and call overwriting strategies.
- The $100K call has regained its status as the most favored options play, with an open interest of $2.82 billion.
- Strangles led block flows in both bitcoin and ether.
- In the futures market, ZEC has experienced an open interest (OI) growth of more than 6% in 24 hours, while ETH’s OI grew by 4%. Speculative activity is observed in FART futures, which saw a 22% increase in OI.
Token talk
- The altcoin market remains quiet even as the broader market shows strength.
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator has fallen to 20/100, down five points from the beginning of the month.
- This decline reflects investors’ growing preference for bitcoin over riskier altcoin investments.
- However, a few exceptions were noted in the past 24 hours: TAO, ENA, and AVAX all registered gains between 4.5% and 8.5%.
- Conversely, hedera (HBAR) dropped by 3.8% as momentum from the spot ETF introduction fades alongside a decrease in trading volume, which fell 15% to $245 million in the last 24 hours.
- The stark contrast between the current altcoin market and that of a year ago is evident: last year it was thriving with viral memecoins and emerging decentralized derivatives exchanges, while now it appears that the retail audience has either left or shifted focus, resulting in a range of tokens that fluctuate based on actual developments rather than mere speculation.
- This maturation is promising for future cycles, as it suggests that sectors could outperform general trends, as evidenced by the recent rise in privacy coins during a time when bitcoin and ether hit multi-month lows.
- Incidentally, privacy coins have also begun a corrective phase after rallying from September through November’s end, with ZEC losing 29.4% over the past week and DASH dropping 22%.
