Crypto Markets Today will be taking a break starting Wednesday, returning on Jan. 5 to provide your usual trading updates and market analysis. Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season!
It’s another risk-off day in the crypto market, with Cardano’s Midnight Network governance token, NIGHT, plummeting 22% in the last 24 hours, marking the steepest decline among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization.
While the cause of the sell-off remains uncertain, other tokens are also facing losses. The non-serious token PUMP has dropped 13%, while MNT, XMR, and ZEC have seen declines of up to 8%.
Bitcoin has dipped below $88,000 after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance level on Monday.
Volatility may increase later on Tuesday with the upcoming release of the third quarter U.S. GDP report, anticipated to reflect continued strength in the economy for the three months ending in September.
Derivatives Positioning
- Cumulative open interest (OI) in BTC futures globally has held steady at approximately 670,000 BTC for over a week. However, it saw a slight decrease in the past 24 hours, signifying a continued lack of engagement in leveraged markets.
- Participation in SOL futures is on the rise, as evidenced by a jump in OI to 58.75 million SOL, marking the highest level since October 10.
- OI in XRP futures grew by 1.28%, while ETH’s OI fell by 1.7%.
- Perpetual funding rates for most major cryptocurrencies remain only slightly positive, indicating a minor bias towards bullish positions. BCH and LINK are notable exceptions, displaying negative rates.
- On the CME, BTC futures open interest continues to diminish alongside weak demand for spot ETFs, suggesting a decline in institutional interest for carry trades.
- On Deribit, the put skews in BTC and ETH options have strengthened following BTC’s inability to maintain gains above $90,000.
- Looking beyond December, the sentiment appears bearish, with the $80,000 put being the most favored position for January expiry options.
- For block flows, strangles and straddles collectively represent 35% of total activity over the past 24 hours, indicating that buyers of these strategies are preparing for volatility.
- In the case of ETH, call spreads have dominated block flows.
Token Talk
- Analysis of 118 tokens introduced in 2025 reveals that only a small portion remain valued higher than at their launches.
- Just 15% are trading above their token generation event (TGE) valuation, according to Memento Research. The median token has dropped around 71% in fully diluted valuation (FDV) and 66% by market capitalization.
- The most significant losses have been from tokens with the highest initial valuations. Among the 28 tokens with a starting FDV of $1 billion or more, none are trading above their initial values, showing a median decline of 81%.
- High-profile launches have negatively impacted the average. The FDV-weighted performance indicates a 61.5% decline, significantly worse than the 33.3% drop seen in an equal-weighted basket.
- Infrastructure, decentralized finance, and artificial intelligence-related tokens led TGE counts, but their performance overall remained negative. Perpetual DEXs were one of the few exceptions, buoyed by strong performances from platforms like Hyperliquid and Aster.
