Key insights:
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium turned negative as BTC price fell below $104,000.
Bitcoin’s RSI reached its lowest level since April, indicating a potential bottom zone.
Support at the 200-day EMA remains critical as BTC faces risks of short-term capitulation.
On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) continued its decline, dropping to $103,500, which led to a significant shift in on-chain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, measuring the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, showed a negative trend on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier this week, BTC sought support around $110,000, supported by consistent spot demand from US investors. The Coinbase premium even reached 0.18, the highest since March 2024.
However, when the price could not hold above $110,000 on Thursday, confidence waned. Despite the hourly premium turning negative, the daily reading remained slightly positive, suggesting that long-term US buying support is still present but currently strained.
The negative sentiment was compounded by a surge in Bitcoin’s taker sell volume, which exceeded $4 billion, indicating a significant influx of market sell orders. This coincided with BTC’s failure to surpass the realized price for short-term holders at $112,370, a level that is now acting as resistance.
This price point historically represents the average cost basis for recent buyers, meaning that ongoing rejection below it could accelerate short-term capitulation toward $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin maintains $105K as US bank stocks rebound, Trump truce lifts market sentiment
Bitcoin reflects its March–April bottom pattern
The current price movement of BTC closely mirrors the March–April bottom range, where sharp intra-day wicks cleared out liquidity built over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. This pattern indicates that BTC could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the overall bullish structure, unless it falls decisively below that level.
The relative strength index (RSI) also fell to its lowest level, matching April’s low of 34, after which BTC started to recover in the charts.
A crucial technical metric to monitor is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has maintained for nearly six months. In the previous cycle, it held this trend from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly losing it during consolidation. Currently, this trendline has stood from April to October 2025, with the price potentially losing the trendline in the coming days.
If BTC continues to follow its previous fractal, the market may be entering a consolidation phase lasting several weeks. In Q1, the recovery phase lasted nearly 45–55 days, forming a true bottom only in late April. Based on this timeline, a gradual recovery may not appear until late November or early December.
Crypto trader Dentoshi echoed this perspective and stated,
“$BTC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run—but it’s taken 45–96 days to do so.”
Related: Bitcoin ‘bull run is over,’ traders caution, with warnings of a 50% BTC price drop
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decision.
