Analyzing the past five years of Bitcoin CME futures data allows us to identify where Bitcoin has historically consolidated, providing insights into established support areas.
A practical approach is to evaluate the total number of trading days Bitcoin has occupied various price bands. The more days spent in a certain range, the greater the potential for position building, which can lead to increased support.
According to data from Investing.com, there are notable differences across price ranges. Ignoring the brief period when Bitcoin traded above $120,000, it has spent the least amount of time within the $70,000 to $79,999 band—only 28 trading days. In comparison, it has only spent 49 days in the $80,000 to $89,999 range. In contrast, lower price brackets like $30,000 to $39,999 and $40,000 to $49,999 experienced nearly two hundred trading days, emphasizing how frequently those levels were tested and consolidated.
Throughout most of December, Bitcoin has operated within the $80,000-$90,000 range, following a sharp decline from its all-time high in October. This pullback has brought the price back to a level where it has historically spent minimal time, especially when juxtaposed with much of 2024, during which Bitcoin spent a considerable number of days between $50,000 and $70,000. This imbalanced distribution indicates that support in the $80,000s and even between $70,000 and $79,999 is likely less robust than in lower price regions.
This finding is further supported by data from Glassnode. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) illustrates where the current Bitcoin supply last moved, utilizing an entity-adjusted methodology which attributes each entity’s total balance to its average acquisition price.
The URPD shows a significant deficit of supply concentrated between $70,000 and $80,000, which aligns with the futures data. Both data sets suggest that, should Bitcoin enter another corrective phase, the $70,000 to $80,000 zone could become a critical area needing additional consolidation time to establish stronger support.
Disclaimer: This analysis is grounded in the daily Open price of Bitcoin CME futures, excluding weekends. Thus, the figures represent how frequently Bitcoin commenced a trading session within each price band instead of intraday or closing price behaviors.
