BTC Market Shifts as ‘New Whales’ Capture 50% Dominance

Recently released on-chain data for Bitcoin (BTC) suggests a departure from traditional cycle peaks or bottoms, pointing towards a structural shift in how capital is infusing the market.

Main Insights:

• Almost 50% of Bitcoin’s realized market cap is now attributed to “new whales,” indicating a significant structural reset of the network’s cost base.

• The supply held by Short-Term Holders (STH) has increased by approximately 100,000 BTC over the last month, reaching an all-time high that reflects strong demand.

New whales are restructuring Bitcoin’s cost base

According to data from CryptoQuant indicates that addresses classified as new whales now make up nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s realized cap. The realized cap reflects the value of BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved, signifying where capital entered the network, rather than who holds the most coins.

Prior to 2025, new whales comprised no more than 22% of Bitcoin’s realized cap. Previous bull markets were fueled by existing whales who accumulated at low prices and gradually distributed their holdings, whereas the current situation sees new whales injecting large amounts of capital at elevated price points.

Interestingly, throughout market pullbacks, the share of the realized cap held by new whales has consistently increased, indicating a fundamental re-anchoring of Bitcoin’s overall cost basis rather than mere speculative trading.

Related: Bitcoin weekly RSI descends to its most oversold levels since the $15K BTC price

Short-term demand spikes as whales capitalize near $85,000

The net position change among short-term holders (30-day) has surged to an unprecedented level of nearly 100,000 BTC. This metric tracks the net change in the supply held by coins younger than 155 days, indicating aggressive accumulation by new participants.

This type of expansion occurs during periods of high momentum when demand outpaces available supply, despite ongoing volatility.

Additionally, recent data on Binance inflows revealed that coins older than 155 days remain largely untouched, confirming that long-term holders are not selling. Instead, the selling pressure mainly came from short-term holders responding to price declines.

Importantly, approximately 37% of BTC transferred to Binance originated from whale-sized wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC), indicating that significant capital was actively moving to seek liquidity during this period.

Furthermore, insights from Hyblock further support this perspective. The cumulative volume delta (CVD), which gauges buyer versus seller dominance, shows that whale wallets ($100,000–$10 million) recorded a positive delta of $135 million this week.

In contrast, retail investors ($0-$10,000) and mid-sized traders ($10,000-$100,000) experienced negative deltas of $84 million and $172 million, respectively. This suggests that larger participants absorbed the selling pressure while smaller traders reduced their exposure.

Related: Fidelity macro lead predicts $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, signaling the end of a bull cycle

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