Key takeaways:
Bitcoin surged 14% in one week, approaching $124,000 amid a US government shutdown.
Onchain data indicated a $1.6 billion increase in buying and a Coinbase premium gap of $92, suggesting demand driven by US investors.
Analysts identify resistance around $130,000, with potential price discovery anticipated next week.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant rally over the past week, gaining 14% and trading just short of $124,000 from a low of around $108,600 last Friday. This upward movement could lead Bitcoin into new price-discovery territory beyond $125,500, coinciding with the total cryptocurrency market cap exceeding $4.21 trillion—highlighting the overall strength of this rally.
A surprising driver of this price increase is the US government shutdown, which markets seem to be overlooking. As federal agencies furlough staff and delays occur in economic data releases, uncertainty among investors is growing.
During these circumstances, Bitcoin has directly benefited, rising 8% since the onset of the shutdown, as traders adapt to the absence of a clear policy direction. This halt also complicates Federal Reserve decisions, as inflation and employment data may be postponed, intensifying speculative interest in crypto.
In statements to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex analysts remarked,
”Bitcoin’s rise towards a new all-time high seems genuinely organic. We believe Trump’s potential consideration of a stimulus check for every citizen, funded by tariffs, could further elevate Bitcoin’s price, reminiscent of the effects following the Covid stimulus checks. Additionally, consistent ETF inflows provide robust support.”
Highlighting macroeconomic circumstances in the US, the analysts noted that “macro conditions remain favorable, with inflation declining and the Federal Reserve taking a more dovish approach, which enhances the appeal of risk assets. […] If inflows maintain consistency and macro data does not yield unexpected gains, the trajectory towards new all-time highs in Q4 seems well supported.”
Onchain BTC buying pressure escalates
Onchain data confirms that the surge is fueled by substantial demand. Analyst Maartunn noted a taker buy volume surge of over $1.6 billion within one hour across all exchanges.
Furthermore, the Coinbase Premium Gap, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and Binance, climbed to $91.86. Analyst Burak Kesmeci explained that US investors are paying nearly $92 more for each Bitcoin on Coinbase, indicating strong US-led demand.
However, this premium is the highest observed since mid-August, a point where bullish momentum has historically waned in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin due for squeeze as record $88B open interest sparks ‘flush’ worries
Price discovery outlook for next week
As Bitcoin approaches record highs, analysts anticipate price discovery in the coming week. Crypto trader Jelle noted,
“$120,000 is becoming support today. If it holds over the weekend, I expect price discovery to kick off as early as next week.”
Trader Rekt Capital characterized this phase as “Phase 3 Price Discovery” within the current cycle, marking the breakout phase where new highs are established.
Analyst Skew pointed out that despite robust demand, significant sell orders are concentrated around $130,000, establishing that level as the next major resistance. The analyst also emphasized the substantial US inflows via Coinbase and large “risk-on” positioning on Binance, noting that the upcoming daily closings will be crucial to determine whether BTC can maintain momentum.
Related: Stablecoins break $300B market cap, post 47% growth year-to-date
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
