Main Insights:
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio dipping below its 365-day average indicates a local bottom, historically leading to significant price surges.
Analysts suggest that a shift in capital from gold could stimulate Bitcoin’s recovery.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a prolonged resurgence in the upcoming weeks, as a crucial valuation indicator provides a bullish outlook. Crypto analysts suggest that the BTC market could be establishing a “cyclical bottom.”
Bitcoin’s MVRV metric indicates a “local bottom”
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Bitcoin, which assesses whether the asset is overpriced, has recently fallen below its 365-day moving average, signaling that BTC might be at a local bottom, as per CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets.
Related: Bitcoin chart parallels the 1970s soybean bubble: Peter Brandt
The analyst stated in a QuickTake analysis on Monday: “The MVRV ratio is currently close to 1.9, just under its 365-day moving average.”
“Historically, whenever this ratio has dropped below the 365 SMA, it has indicated a buying opportunity and signaled a local bottom.”
The last occurrences were in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, preceding BTC price increases of 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.
This pattern suggests Bitcoin is entering an undervalued stage where long-term holders typically begin accumulating, the analyst noted.
After an 18% drop in BTC price to $103,530 from an all-time high of $126,000 on Friday, the MVRV has decreased, reflecting diminished speculative activity and increasing long-term confidence, according to the analyst. He added:
“If this metric starts to trend upwards from current levels, it could validate that the recent sell-off was a cyclical bottom formation, paving the way for a renewed bullish phase into Q4.”
Should historical trends hold, Bitcoin’s price could experience a significant recovery, with analysts estimating short-term targets around $115,000 and potentially soaring to $190,000 if the final phase of the bull run materializes.
Capital shift from gold could elevate BTC price
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates that gold has decreased by 8.5% from its all-time high of $4,380 reached on Monday.
This represents a “significant decline for gold,” noted MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe in a post on X on Tuesday.
If this trend persists, it would suggest that gold has “peaked for now,” indicating that “the rotation” towards Bitcoin and altcoins may be beginning, according to van de Poppe.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is anticipated to be released on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“A favorable CPI report could ignite momentum for possible rate cuts and the conclusion of the government shutdown,” the analyst suggested, adding:
“Bitcoin could start gaining ground as risk-on sentiment returns.”
Additionally, Bitwise analysts propose that a 5% transfer of capital from gold to Bitcoin could propel Bitcoin’s price to $240,000.
Bitwise claims that a 5% capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin might send BTC to $242,391 👀 pic.twitter.com/FwvjneWhdX
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 21, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, gold’s ongoing decline could catalyze Bitcoin’s resurgence, with technical analyses predicting a BTC price increase to between $150,000 and $165,000 by year-end.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a choice.
