Main Insights:
Bitcoin price trends from 2021 suggest a potential drop to $60,000 if historical patterns repeat.
Support at $104,000 is seen by bulls, with upward targets of $140,000 or higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen over 12.75% from its peak above $124,500, causing a divide among traders.
Some view it as a standard bull market correction, while others caution that a new bear market may be underway. But which perspective holds more weight?
Bitcoin 2021 Chart Patterns Indicate $60,000
Various analyses suggest Bitcoin might replicate the price movement that preempted the 2021 market peak.
Crypto analyst Reflection notes that in 2021, BTC experienced a sharp surge to record highs, followed by a blow-off top, a correction into mid-range support, and a failed retest of resistance.
This sequence resulted in a crash of over 50%, with prices plummeting from nearly $69,000 to about $32,000 in just weeks.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 2025 structure mirrors this four-step process, hovering just below a distribution zone similar to the one that signaled a bearish turn in 2021.
The cryptocurrency may face a comparable rejection if this fractal continues to hold.
Additionally, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin has breached a rising wedge, a bearish setup characterized by higher highs and lows within narrowing trendlines.
This breakdown increases the likelihood of a decline to the $60,000–$62,000 range, coinciding with the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; blue wave). Some analysts even predict Bitcoin may dip towards $50,000.
Notably, a similar wedge collapse in 2021 resulted in a 55% correction to the same 200-week EMA support.
Bitcoin May Surge Past $124,500
However, not all foresee further declines in the Bitcoin market.
Trader Jesse points out a convergence of BTC’s 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, which could offer support during market dips, suggesting a potential “mid-term bottom” might form there.
As of Friday, this EMA support level stood around the $104,000-106,000 range.
Related: Bitcoin needs to reach $104K to mirror previous bull market dips: Research
Analyst Bitbull indicates that Bitcoin is still distant from a true cycle peak, highlighting that the US Business Cycle, a broad measure of economic momentum, has not yet topped, which typically occurs before market declines.
With the Federal Reserve now cutting interest rates, Bitbull believes the crypto market could still see another three to four months of upward movement before a possible “blow-off top.”
Signs of bullish continuation bolster the argument for Bitcoin rising as high as $140,000, according to analyst Captain Faibik.
He contends that the current dip represents a “healthy correction,” with BTC testing its 200-day moving average near $104,000 as potential support.
Faibik emphasizes the potential formation of a bull flag. In this scenario, a strong move above the $113,000 resistance level could confirm the breakout, paving the way for a rally towards $140,000 in the upcoming months.
Numerous analysts have projected similar year-end targets for Bitcoin previously, with some even favoring macro BTC peaks in the $150,000-200,000 range.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions carry risks, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
