Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, your daily recap of key stories during U.S. hours along with insights on market movements and analysis. For a comprehensive look at U.S. markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Crypto markets in Asia are starting with a steadier BTC, although the sentiment remains cautious. Current data indicates a market that has paused its decline, yet is not poised for a significant uptick. ETF flows, on-chain signals, and derivatives pricing all suggest a standstill.
U.S. ETF flows appear to have stabilized for the first time in weeks, showing a $56.5M inflow on December 9 following over $1.1B in weekly redemptions throughout November, according to data from SoSoValue. Glassnode’s analysis indicates that while the recovery is genuine, it is also shallow. Momentum has improved, yet the spot CVD — indicating cumulative buy minus sell pressure — remains significantly negative, derivatives positioning remains cautious, and on-chain activities are at the lower end of their historical range. Short-term holders are still dominating supply, adding to market sensitivity towards volatility.
Glassnode observes that various signals imply a market that is stabilizing in price but lacks structural strength. The 14-day RSI, a momentum indicator that assesses whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has returned to its midrange, suggesting that bitcoin has rebounded from last week’s extreme conditions.
Futures open interest has decreased, the volatility spread is notably discounted, and options skew indicates that traders are still seeking downside protection rather than aiming for upside positions.
On-chain activity does not confirm a strengthening trend, as active address counts are near cycle lows and realized cap growth is only 0.7 percent, indicating weak capital inflows. The supply mix is similarly delicate due to the ongoing dominance of short-term holders.
Overall, the data implies that BTC’s rebound is more about the lack of severe selling rather than strong demand.
Until ETF flows become consistently positive and on-chain activity shows improvement, the market is expected to drift rather than trend. A more defined directional movement will necessitate a change in behavior from both long-term holders and institutional investors, which is currently absent.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,214 following a sharp reversal during the U.S. session, driven by spot demand rather than leverage, which is interpreted as a sign of seller fatigue.
ETH: Ether is fluctuating around $3,296 after a 6% daily gain, enhancing its performance as short covering and improving sentiment buoy large-cap tokens.
Gold: Gold is trading securely above $4,200, bolstered by improved U.S. labor data and expectations of a Fed rate cut, though momentum remains muted ahead of Wednesday’s policy announcement.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets are trading mostly higher as investors await China’s inflation data and a predicted 0.25% Fed rate cut, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.82%.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Do Kwon Judge Seeks Clarification Before Sentencing Over ‘Assurance’ He’ll Serve Time (CoinDesk)
- Securitize hires former PayPal executive as general counsel ahead of going public via SPAC (The Block)
