Key points:
Bitcoin has the potential to recover from its recent downturn and achieve new all-time highs within four months, according to historical trends.
Research indicates that Bitcoin’s outlook from now until Christmas is “positive yet less volatile.”
The current price dip may be “frontrunning” the typical September downturn for BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to show average gains of 44% by Christmas, as analysts suggest that a significant price correction is unlikely.
Research by network economist Timothy Peterson, released on X this week, predicts a “positive” performance for BTC/USD in Q4.
Bitcoin analysis targets $160,000
Historically, Bitcoin experiences its lowest gains in September, a month where BTC/USD has never concluded higher than 8%.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Despite this trend, Peterson, who frequently analyzes data across various bull markets, remains hopeful.
“Just four months until Christmas. How does Bitcoin generally perform during this period? It rises 70% of the time with an average gain of +44%,” he summarized.
This average gain would position Bitcoin at $160,000 by the final week of 2025, supported by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Peterson notes that these forecasts serve more as guidelines than strict rules, citing several atypical years in Bitcoin’s history.
“Nonetheless, some years lack market or economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as uncharacteristic,” he concluded.
“This skews outcomes in favor of a positive yet less volatile performance.”Bitcoin Q4 performance comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Bitcoin “frontrunning” typical September downturn
Meanwhile, others are untroubled by the recent weakness in BTC prices, which has dipped to lows not seen since early July.
Related: Bitcoin Q2 dip similarities ‘uncanny’ as Coinbase Premium flips green
Renowned trader Donny informed his followers on X that BTC/USD is “frontrunning” the standard September downturn.
“The magnitude is different — but the result remains the same. Much higher,” he predicted while comparing the current price movements to the 2017 bull market.
BTC/USDT bull market comparison. Source: Donny/X
Donny further suggested that he sees BTC/USD following a pattern similar to gold after a lagging period — a classic correlation that has persisted in recent years.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
