As the market remains stagnant, Bitcoin (BTC) is striving to establish its recent range highs as a support level. Following a period of short-term fluctuations, prompted by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate reduction, the cryptocurrency may be on track to conclude the month on a favorable note.
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Bitcoin Approaches Multi-Month Bullish Phase
On Wednesday, Bitcoin revisited the $117,000 resistance for the first time in nearly a month before facing rejection. The crypto has been oscillating between the $107,000-$116,000 range since late August, hitting local lows at the beginning of September.
During this pullback, investors hoped to avoid another “Rektember,” historically one of BTC’s weakest months. CoinGlass data reveals that September has generally seen negative returns for BTC over the years, averaging a decline of 2.99%.
Nonetheless, the leading cryptocurrency has shown a positive trend in the last two years, posting returns of 3.91% and 7.29% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Analyst Crypto Jelle pointed out that with less than two weeks remaining in the month, Bitcoin seems to be gearing up for a multi-month upswing.
Last week, BTC bounced back from the early September drop, surging past the critical $114,000 mark and establishing it as support over the weekend. Consequently, the cryptocurrency is currently enjoying a robust return of 6.35%, marking one of its strongest Septembers yet, according to analytics data.
Jelle mentioned that “a successful September often leads to two, three, or even six consecutive months of positive performance.” Based on this trend, he suggested that if Bitcoin maintains its upward trajectory for the remainder of the month, “Q4 could be extremely promising for BTC.”
BTC Retests Critical Level Amid Market Fluctuations
Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had a weekly close above $114,000 and is currently retesting this area as support during this week’s pullbacks. This could invite volatile downward spikes beneath this critical threshold if the week closes above $114,000.
Conversely, failing to maintain this level could jeopardize BTC’s prospects for a third upward price discovery.
Overall, BTC needs to retest and sustain $114k as support on the weekly chart, and any downward volatility below this level would likely materialize as a wick by the week’s end with the new Weekly Close.
Many market analysts expect some short-term volatility, as the Federal Reserve was anticipated to announce its first interest rate cut of the year. Altcoin Sherpa expressed that “25bps is the expectation here” indicating “25 bps = Business as Usual but UP.”
He predicted that this decision would likely spark a dip to the range lows or some erratic performance before rising again in late September or early October. On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024.
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“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity growth moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has increased slightly but remains low. Inflation has risen and remains somewhat elevated,” stated the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement reads.
BTC retested the $114,000 support and $116,000 resistance immediately following the announcement, before settling around the $115,500 mark.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
