Bitcoin may have reached the end of its historical four-year cycle, indicating a potential year of decline, despite widespread expectations among analysts for an extended bullish phase fueled by regulatory support.
According to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomic research at Fidelity, Bitcoin’s (BTC) $125,000 all-time high on October 6 might mark the peak of the current four-year halving cycle in both “price and time.”
“While I continue to believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, my concern is that we may have concluded another four-year halving phase,” Timmer stated in a post on X here. “Bitcoin winters typically last about a year, so I think 2026 could be a year of stagnation for Bitcoin. Support levels are at $65-75k.”
Related: Bitcoin treasuries stagnate in Q4, but major holders continue accumulating sats
Crypto market may experience further growth on fundamental and regulatory support
Timmer’s view contrasts with other crypto analysts, who predict the increasing availability of regulated crypto investment products will foster a prolonged bull market in 2026.
Notably, Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, anticipates new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026 after investor sentiment rebounds from the unprecedented $19 billion crypto market crash at the start of October.
“We are dealing with the aftermath of a catastrophic liquidation event on 10/10 that disrupted the market,” Shaughnessy mentioned in a post on X here, adding:
“Once this is addressed, we will reach BTC’s all-time highs in 2026, as prices adjust to the recovery beyond 10/10.”
Shaughnessy believes market valuations will be influenced by the industry’s “fundamental advancements,” including increased adoption by Wall Street and evolving regulatory frameworks.
Related: Bitcoin advocates call for quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade amid heated debates
Policy experts predict that 2026 will be a pivotal year for US cryptocurrency legislation, potentially attracting more institutional investment into the crypto sector.
“I anticipate 2026 will be significant for crypto regulation, but it will differ from previous years,” stated Cathy Yoon, general counsel at crypto research firm Temporal and Solana’s block-building system Harmonic, in an interview with Cointelegraph.
“With stablecoin legislation now in place, the real effects will occur during implementation — examining, disclosing, and integrating these assets into payment systems and financial infrastructure,” she added.
However, investor sentiment took a notable hit earlier this week when Bitcoin fell below $85,000. Negative commentary has since surged on social media platforms such as X, Reddit, and Telegram, according to market intelligence provider Santiment.
Meanwhile, investors identified as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain analytics platform are also anticipating a short-term decline for most leading cryptocurrencies.
While smart money traders had a net short position on Bitcoin amounting to $123 million, the same group was optimistic about Ether’s (ETH) price growth, with cumulative net long positions totaling $475 million, according to Nansen.
Magazine: Sharplink exec surprised by the level of BTC and ETH ETF holdings — Joseph Chalom
