Bitcoin is set for remarkable price discovery, provided it doesn’t peak in the coming days, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.
“A bull market high is a reasonable expectation any day now,” Brandt informed Cointelegraph on Wednesday, referencing Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical cycle pattern observed over the last three cycles.
“While the duration of these cycles from low-to-halving-to-high can vary, the post-halving distance consistently matches the pre-halving distance,” Brandt noted.
Sunday marked a pivotal day for Bitcoin’s cycle
Brandt noted that Bitcoin reached its current cycle low on November 9, 2022, which is 533 days ahead of the Bitcoin halving set for April 20, 2024.
“Adding 533 days to April 20, 2024, brings us to this week,” he stated. That date was Sunday, just one day prior to Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high over $126,100 on Monday.
However, Brandt cautioned, “there is always an ‘except,’” which could heavily influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. “Trends that diverge from the prevailing cyclic or seasonal patterns of markets tend to be the most significant,” he mentioned.
Despite market cycles not always repeating identically, Brandt observed that Bitcoin has adhered to them consistently to date.
“Eventually, cycles do change. But it’s unwise to bet against a cycle boasting a flawless three-for-three record,” he advised.
Brandt stated he is ambivalent about the outcome. “I maintain a bullish outlook, hoping for counter-cyclicality. In this scenario, I expect a movement well beyond $150,000, possibly peaking at $185,000,” he revealed.
The ongoing debate on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
This discussion persists as questions arise regarding the relevance of crypto’s four-year cycle, amid increasing institutional adoption, ETF products, and corporate digital asset holdings.
In July, crypto analyst Rekt Capital similarly suggested that if Bitcoin adheres to the 2020 cycle pattern, the market may peak in October.
“We have a limited window for price expansion,” Rekt stated on July 3.
Some believe that even if Bitcoin doesn’t follow the four-year cycle precisely, it will still display a recognizable pattern.
Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s APAC head, shared with Cointelegraph at Token2049 that “it ultimately stems from” people getting overly excited and extending themselves, followed by a crash, after which the market corrects to an equilibrium.
Related: Bitcoin poised for squeeze as record $88B open interest raises ‘flush’ concerns
Numerous analysts predict significant Bitcoin gains before year-end. Economist Timothy Peterson informed Cointelegraph on Tuesday that there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin will finish the month above $140,000, based on simulations from the past decade.
Looking ahead, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s market research director, Joe Burnett, have both projected Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
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