Asia-centered Tiger Research has established a Q3 price prediction of $190,000 for bitcoin (BTC), contending that unprecedented global liquidity, structural ETF demand, and updated 401(k) access create the market’s most favorable conditions since 2021.
Tiger’s model identifies a “base price” of $135,000, adding multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%) to achieve the $190,000 estimate — reflecting a 67% increase from this week’s average of $113,000.
The report emphasizes three main drivers: the M2 money supply surpassing $90 trillion, ETF and corporate acquisition now making up 6% of bitcoin’s total supply, and new regulatory approvals allowing U.S. retirement accounts to invest in crypto.
Trump’s executive order permitting 401(k) allocations contributes what Tiger describes as “a definitive signal of bitcoin’s evolution into a central institutional asset.” A mere 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion market could translate to nearly $90 billion in demand.
Accumulation trends are evident. ETFs together hold 1.3 million BTC, while Strategy (MSTR) possesses over 629,000 coins valued at $71 billion. Investments through convertible bonds have added a structural consistency to Strategy’s inflows. Transfer volumes also indicate a shift, with fewer transactions but larger amounts, suggesting a transition from retail involvement to institutional block trading.
However, the report acknowledges that the network appears imbalanced. Daily transactions and active users are significantly lower than last year’s peaks, and retail engagement has decreased. New projects like BTCFi are essential to rejuvenate activity spanning beyond just institutional wallets.
On-chain indicators also raise concerns. The MVRV-Z ratio, which assesses how far market prices have risen above initial holder costs, currently stands at 2.49 — a level that has historically indicated corrections as profit accumulation occurs.
Adjusted spent output profit ratio (ASOPR) is resting at 1.019, suggesting that coins sold are only slightly profitable, indicating that traders are securing modest gains rather than exiting at peak levels.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which gauges unrealized profits and losses across the blockchain, is at 0.558, reflecting a robust yet not euphoric market sentiment. Collectively, these indicators portray a market that’s active but not excessively leveraged.
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