The comparison between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has reached a critical bottom phase as a significant support retest begins.
Key points:
For the first time since early 2024, Bitcoin has dropped to 20 ounces of gold.
This marks the dividing line between bull and bear market phases, according to analysts.
A three-year Bitcoin uptrend against gold is nearly lost.
Bitcoin vs. gold: Bullish divergence at support
On Saturday, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe forecasted “more upward movement for Bitcoin in the future.”
Bitcoin has faced challenges in terms of gold, as the precious metal remains close to all-time highs amid the Q4 crypto market correction.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView indicates that BTC/XAU is currently trading around 20 ounces — its lowest point since early 2024.
However, Van de Poppe sees potential opportunities ahead.
“In past instances when markets reached their lows, BTCUSD/Gold also hit its low. One is becoming overvalued while the other is undervalued,” he shared with his followers on X.
“In my view, Gold is becoming overvalued, whereas #Bitcoin is undervalued.”
Historical patterns suggest that during every Bitcoin bear market cycle, when the weekly relative strength index (RSI) dips into “oversold” territory below 30, it has signaled a long-term bottom for the pair.
“The positive aspect: on the daily timeframe, it is starting to present a bullish divergence, indicating there’s potential for more upward movement shortly,” Van de Poppe added.
While the daily RSI begins to deviate from the price, the weekly RSI currently stands at 29.5, marking lows unseen in nearly three years.
Support break “likely within the next few weeks”
In discussing the topic further, the trading and commentary account Wealthmanager emphasized that Bitcoin’s previous bear market initiated due to the failure of BTC/XAU to maintain the 20-ounce threshold.
Related: Bears take control below $90K? 5 key points for Bitcoin this week
“The Bitcoin to Gold ratio is at a vital support level. The last bear market officially began when this support was breached,” an X post cautioned.
“I anticipate we will consolidate here for a while, but a break is probable within the next few weeks.”
Meanwhile, crypto trader and entrepreneur Ted Pillows pointed out that the recent drop has resulted in the loss of a long-standing uptrend.
BTC/Gold has lost its three-year uptrend.
A poor way to conclude 2025 for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/iDrQKS2jpq
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 20, 2025
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This article does not serve as investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions carry risks, and readers should perform their own research before making any choices. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information herein. This article may include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph cannot be held liable for any loss or damage stemming from reliance on this information.
