For over ten years, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin’s bullish trends.
On average, it has historically yielded gains of around 22.5%, buoyed by post-summer liquidity, year-end portfolio adjustments, and recently, consistent demand from U.S. investment products.
This year, expectations were similarly optimistic. True to tradition, Bitcoin reached a new high of over $126,000 in the first week, prompting traders to revive the familiar mantra, “Uptober.”
However, a sudden sell-off quickly wiped out those initial gains, and unlike technology stocks and other high-risk assets, Bitcoin didn’t regain its value.
This led to a decline for the month, disappointing the meme, and the market was reminded that slogans don’t mitigate supply issues.
Echoes of 2018
What stands out this October is its striking resemblance to 2018.
During that time, October didn’t collapse, but the rally simply stalled. Once the typical seasonal support faded, November and December plummeted sharply, with Bitcoin dropping over 36% in November alone.
The lesson was clear: when a traditionally strong month fails to push prices higher, it indicates underlying weaknesses are at play. These weaknesses may stem from excess supply, diminishing demand, or tighter macroeconomic factors.
This year’s context bears a similar feeling. The calendar still functioned, but the market entered October on a weakened note.
After a robust first three quarters, traders were heavily invested, liquidity became uneven, and long-term holders began to take profits with every sign of market strength.
What caused Bitcoin’s decline in October?
On-chain analytics provide substantial insight into Bitcoin’s price struggles in October.
Data from Glassnode, a blockchain analytics provider, revealed that long-term BTC holders have been progressively spending their coins since mid-July, increasing realized sales from around $1 billion per day to between $2 billion and $3 billion daily by early October.
It highlighted:
“Analyzing by age cohort shows that 6m–12m holders contributed to over 50% of the recent selling pressure—particularly during the late stages of the peak formation. Near the $126,000 ATH, their selling surpassed $648M/day (7D-SMA); more than 5 times their baseline earlier this year.”
Notably, this distribution wasn’t a frantic spike akin to previous capitulation events. It was a steady, ongoing commitment, selling on each sign of strength.
According to the firm, many coins were from wallets purchased between $70,000 and $96,000, yielding an average cost of about $93,000.
This indicates that the situation appears more like profit-taking after a strong year rather than a response to fear of a downturn.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s lackluster performance was further compounded by a significantly reduced buying interest in October.
In their weekly analysis, crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted a marked decrease in demand from U.S. investors in spot markets, ETFs, and futures following late-September’s rally.
In fact, ETF inflows dropped to under 1,000 BTC per day, a significant decrease compared to the average of over 2,500 BTC daily seen at the beginning of major rallies throughout this cycle.
Additionally, premiums on spot exchanges decreased, and the futures basis also fell.
Moreno pointed out that these trends indicate that marginal U.S. buyers stepped back just as long-term holders increased their selling activity.
Additionally, the broader macroeconomic environment exacerbated the situation.
This year has seen trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China—and conflicts in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve has also consistently suggested a strict policy stance, keeping global dollar liquidity tight.
In light of these factors, research platform Kronos characterized the decline in October as a “liquidity strain, not a trend break,” emphasizing that Bitcoin continued to function as a relative flight-to-safety asset even while leveraged positions were liquidated.
What lies ahead for BTC?
The troubling comparison for bulls is that the last negative October preceded a tough year-end.
In 2018, when seasonal support vanished, thinner liquidity followed, resulting in more aggressive distribution by long-term holders, while buyers awaited further price drops.
Nevertheless, today’s market shows signs of being healthier, as the investor base is broader, stablecoin liquidity is higher, and regulated products now create a more gradual, reliable bid that didn’t exist seven years ago.
Considering this context, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, described the present landscape as one of “recalibration, not collapse,” noting that institutional acquisition continues under the surface as long as Bitcoin stays above the $107,000–$110,000 range.
Despite this, the October results shift the narrative. When Bitcoin fails to rise during a month typically marked by rallies, the onus now rests on the bulls.
The final two months of the year are likely to focus less on “Uptober” memes and more on whether long-term holder selling returns to about $1 billion daily and if U.S. ETF flows can accelerate again.
If supply remains high while the regulated demand stays low, 2025 could reflect the patterns of 2018, leading to a turbulent and unsatisfactory end to the year. Conversely, if flows improve and geopolitical tensions ease, October may be seen not as the beginning of a decline, but rather as a smooth transition from older holders to new ones.
