US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) kicked off October, a month typically known for its bullish trends, with their second-highest weekly inflows since inception, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw $3.24 billion in cumulative net positive inflows over the past week, nearing their record of $3.38 billion from the week concluding on Nov. 22, 2024, according to data from SoSoValue.
This represents a significant recovery from the prior week’s outflow of $902 million. Analysts cite rising expectations for an additional US interest rate reduction, which has bolstered sentiment towards risk assets.
The prospect of another US interest rate cut has prompted a “shift in sentiment,” boosting investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs, “bringing four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion,” stated Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, in a conversation with Cointelegraph. “At the current rate, Q4 flows could remove over 100,000 BTC from circulation — more than double new issuance.”
“ETF absorption is increasing as long-term holder distribution declines, aiding BTC in forming a more robust foundation,” he added, particularly near crucial technical support levels.
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Ongoing ETF inflows could significantly benefit Bitcoin this October, often referred to by crypto investors as “Uptober,” which historically ranks as the second-best month for Bitcoin in terms of average returns.
This week’s $3.2 billion surge briefly elevated Bitcoin’s price above $123,996 on Friday, establishing an over six-week high last observed on Aug. 14 for the pioneer cryptocurrency, as shown by TradingView data.
Bitcoin’s ascent beyond $120,000 may lead to a “very quick move” over the $150,000 all-time high before 2025 concludes, remarked Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, during an interview at Token2049 in Singapore.
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Uptober raises analyst hopes of new Bitcoin highs
Bitcoin ETFs are now viewed as the “clearest sentiment barometer” for the cryptocurrency market, suggesting a possible breakout this October, Kalchev noted.
“Uptober is showing clear signs of an early-Q4 breakout in the crypto market, driven by ETF inflows, seasonal strength, and dovish macro conditions.”
However, Bitcoin’s momentum will hinge on several pivotal events next week, including an upcoming speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Additionally, investors are eagerly anticipating the delayed US jobs report, the publication of which depends on the duration of the ongoing US government shutdown, marking the first occurrence of such since 2018.
Meanwhile, strong momentum for Bitcoin is expected, as October historically ranks as its second-best month for performance.
BTC has averaged around 20% monthly returns in October, 46% in November, and roughly 4% in December, as per CoinGlass data.
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