Main Insights:
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is evident with over $3.5 billion in weekly ETF inflows and exchange balances at a five-year low.
Strong futures open interest and ongoing BTC adoption indicate traders believe Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in the near future.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) underwent a 4.2% correction after hitting an all-time high of $126,219 the day prior, a pullback that came after a notable 12.5% weekly gain. Despite trader concerns about a more significant downturn due to global economic uncertainties, Bitcoin derivatives and institutional inflows suggest potential for further gains.
Bitcoin monthly futures show an 8% annualized premium compared to regular spot markets, firmly within the neutral 5% to 10% range. Excessive confidence often drives this spread above 20%, indicating greater demand for leveraged bullish positions. Conversely, bearish trends typically pull this indicator below 5% or into negative territory — a situation not currently prevailing.
Upon initial observation, the hesitance from derivative traders might seem bearish, yet it actually mitigates the risk of cascading liquidations in the event of a further Bitcoin price drop. Furthermore, data robustly indicates that the rally following the $109,000 retest on September 26 was fueled by actual inflows, not mere speculation. The longer Bitcoin remains above $120,000, the more convinced the bulls become.
Growing Institutional Inflows and Corporate Reserves Bolster Bitcoin’s Market Standing
Institutional uptake continues to favor Bitcoin, strengthening its position as digital gold. Regardless of the timeline for achieving a new all-time high, Bitcoin has already gained 31% year-to-date in 2025, significantly surpassing the S&P 500’s 14% rise. Net flows into Bitcoin products remain a solid indicator of institutional enthusiasm.
The $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products, including ETFs, raised total assets under management to $195.2 billion, marking a clear indication of rising institutional adoption. For context, listed instruments backed by silver, which boast a market cap roughly comparable to Bitcoin’s, currently total about $40 billion.
Bitcoin investment firms like Strategy and Metaplanet continue to acquire BTC as a reserve asset, reinforcing Bitcoin’s status as a distinct asset class. The Brazilian firm OranjeBTC commenced trading on the stock market on Tuesday after acquiring 3,675 BTC, worth over $445 million at current valuations.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit a Five-Year Low
Bitcoin deposits on exchanges have plummeted to their lowest levels in over five years, indicating a diminished supply available for immediate sale. Glassnode estimates total exchange balances at 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million just a month ago. While large buyers can still access supply through over-the-counter (OTC) desks, the decreasing balances among exchanges indicate a trend toward continued accumulation.
Decrease in Bitcoin Deposits and Resilient Derivatives Markets Support Bullish Trajectory
Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges is currently at $72 billion, a 2% decrease from Monday but still reflects a strong standing. A deep and liquid derivatives market is vital for attracting flows from global hedge funds and asset allocators, even in times of heightened demand for short positions.
The bullish momentum for Bitcoin may hinge on reduced risks tied to inflated stock market valuations. Traders offloaded Oracle (ORCL) shares on Tuesday following reports revealing challenges related to shrinking margins in the cloud server sector, particularly affecting Nvidia-based rentals for the artificial intelligence industry.
While short-term consolidation is a possibility, the robustness of Bitcoin’s derivatives market and ongoing institutional uptake bolster expectations for further increases, with bullish targets set for $150,000 or more by year’s end.
This article serves general informational purposes and is not intended to be and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views expressed here represent only the author’s perspective and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views of Cointelegraph.
