Anatoly Yakovenko, a co-founder of Solana, has issued a warning that Bitcoin developers need to brace for a potential breakthrough in quantum computing that could undermine the current security protocols of the network.
Summary
- At the All-In Summit, Anatoly Yakovenko reignited the discussion around Bitcoin’s long-term security.
- There is a “50/50” chance that quantum computers could compromise its cryptographic defenses within the next five years. The rapid progress in AI underscores how swiftly theoretical possibilities can become reality.
- The key question is not if Bitcoin needs to transition to quantum-safe cryptography, but rather when it should.
During his address at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko stated that there is a “50/50” likelihood that in five years, quantum computers will be capable of breaching the cryptographic protections that safeguard Bitcoin wallets.
The alarm is raised around quantum computers employing algorithms like Shor’s, which could potentially break the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm that currently secures Bitcoin (BTC) private keys.
This vulnerability could enable attackers to forge transactions and compromise wallets, posing an existential threat to the network.
Yakovenko emphasized that “we should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme” before such technologies become feasible.
Skeptics like Blockstream’s Adam Back downplay immediacy of threat
The Bitcoin community is split on the urgency of quantum threats. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, believes the technology is still quite distant and asserts that preparing Bitcoin for quantum attacks is “relatively simple.”
Bitcoin Core contributor Peter Todd dismissed the existence of current quantum computers, noting that “demos running toy problems do not count.”
Luke Dashjr, another Bitcoin Core contributor, suggested that the immediate threats pose less danger than issues like spam transactions and developer corruption that the community currently faces.
Altering Bitcoin’s design for quantum readiness complicates matters. Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography would necessitate a hard fork, a process that is contentious and technically challenging, requiring broad network consensus.
Yakovenko countered skepticism by highlighting rapid advancements in AI as evidence of how quickly theoretical research can find real-world application.
He indicated that when major tech companies such as Apple or Google roll out quantum-safe cryptographic frameworks, “it’s time to migrate” Bitcoin’s security protocols.
Exposed keys create vulnerability
Bitcoin’s exposure to quantum threats arises from two primary attack vectors. The network employs ECDSA based on the secp256k1 curve to protect private keys and validate transactions.
This approach renders it particularly vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm, which can derive private keys from public keys in polynomial time.
Roughly 25-30% of all Bitcoin, exceeding 4 million BTC—including the early holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto—are stored in addresses with exposed public keys.
These legacy Pay-to-Public-Key addresses are vulnerable to quantum attacks, as their public keys are visible on the blockchain.
Transaction windows further increase risk exposure. When Bitcoin users initiate transactions, they expose public keys during the approximate 10-minute confirmation period.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could take advantage of this brief exposure to obtain private keys and reroute funds before transactions are confirmed.
