Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with strong momentum as bulls pushed the price above $111,000.
BTC’s price movement shows improvement as the week closes, providing much-needed relief for hodlers — could a short squeeze be on the horizon?
Bearish price targets remain a focus, with longer time frames raising doubts about the sustainability of the bull market.
The US CPI report will proceed without any disruption from the government shutdown on Friday, offering crucial inflation data for the Federal Reserve.
Risk appetite appears to be slowly returning to the crypto markets as leverage picks up, but traders are cautious about significant price rises.
Bitcoin’s dominance is under scrutiny as altcoins remain inactive.
Focus on BTC price “upside imbalances”
Bitcoin exhibited volatility into Sunday’s weekly close, finishing at $108,600 before a brief correction.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates buyer momentum returned during the week’s initial Asia trading session, enabling a rise to $111,000.
Traders anticipate continued volatility in the days ahead.
In a dedicated outlook post on X, trader CrypNuevo indicated that a short squeeze could define the remainder of October.
“Now, we have a significant cluster of short liquidations between $116k-$117k. Is a short squeeze imminent?” he queried, accompanied by a chart of exchange order-book liquidity.
CrypNuevo emphasized that “upside imbalances” should be monitored moving forward.
Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows marked $112,000 as a critical reclaim level.
“With US-China trade tensions easing, I believe BTC could climb further from this point,” he informed his followers on X.
Attention was again drawn to gold and its potential influence on Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs as XAU/USD consolidated after hitting a record $4,380 per ounce on Friday.
“Gold has been surging this year while BTC’s performance has lagged,” trader Daan Crypto Trades noted while examining the Bitcoin to gold ratio.
“If gold stabilizes, we might see some capital flow back into riskier assets. Equities would likely benefit the most, while Bitcoin & Crypto would capture a smaller share.”
Bitcoin’s $102,000 Binance wick remains unfilled
Bearish outlooks for Bitcoin persist as the Oct. 10 crash lingers in traders’ sentiment.
Trader Roman has been speaking out about Bitcoin’s fundamental weakness in recent months.
According to him, BTC/USD is facing decreasing volume despite reaching new record highs. Relative strength index (RSI) indicators on longer time frames suggest that a bearish divergence is forming.
$BTC 1M
– Record high MACD
– Bear divs RSI/MACD
– Low volume + price up (bullish Price action exhaustion)
– Momentum loss
– Record high Profit takingIt’s safer to take profits on long-term positions. The bull run won’t last long. pic.twitter.com/bKbdDydjG6
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) October 13, 2025
Currently, a possible rebound — even reaching $118,000 — might form a head and shoulders trend reversal pattern.
“A break of this level would nullify that scenario, and there’s a possibility it’s merely consolidation,” he told his followers on X last week.
As Cointelegraph reported, the four-hour RSI showed a bullish divergence after the dip to $102,000 on Binance.
Nonetheless, many still expect the market to decline to “fill” that daily candle wick.
“What I see is a bearish retest, and decreasing volume on this slight move up supports that theory,” Roman commented regarding the latest price hike above $111,000.
“We still need to fill that wick!”
CPI is due despite US government shutdown
This coming week presents a unique macroeconomic event that is stirring interest among watchers.
Despite the ongoing US government shutdown, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a crucial inflation measure — will proceed on Friday.
“An unusual event this week: We will receive CPI inflation data DURING the US government shutdown on Friday,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter stated in an X post.
Kobeissi highlighted that this will be the first Friday CPI release since 2018.
The timing bears significance: only five days later, the Federal Reserve will convene to deliberate on interest rate adjustments.
Macro data released leading up to each Fed meeting holds particular weight for officials. This time, the stakes are particularly high, as the shutdown has postponed most inflation data publication.
“The Labor Department announced that NO OTHER releases will be rescheduled until the shutdown concludes,” Kobeissi added.
“This comes at a critical juncture for the Fed as they evaluate whether to maintain rate cuts. There’s increasing speculation regarding a ‘bullish’ September CPI report.”
A lower-than-anticipated CPI reading would uplift risk assets, boosting the chances of a rate cut — thereby increasing liquidity inflows later. According to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets have begun to expect a 0.25% cut on Oct. 29.
A potential disruptive factor remains the US-China trade tensions. Markets are particularly responsive to statements from President Donald Trump concerning possible trade agreements or disputes with Beijing.
Crypto risk-taking slowly resurfaces
Leverage is re-entering the crypto market, as recent data shows, as traders evaluate the effects of the earlier $19 billion sell-off.
The latest information from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s leverage has been increasing nearly immediately after the liquidation event on Oct. 10.
“Following a sharp drop in mid-October, the index started to recover last week, rising from lows around 0.148 to nearly 0.166 by the end of the period,” contributor Arab Chain stated in a recent “Quicktake” blog post on Monday.
“This gradual uptick illustrates a resurgence of leveraged activity in the market. The modest rise indicates that some traders are reopening their leveraged positions amid a slight improvement in overall sentiment, particularly after the cessation of the substantial liquidation wave that occurred earlier.”
Arab Chain noted that the gradual increase in leverage reflects a more “cautious” approach among traders, while expectations for significant price gains remain limited.
“A continuation of this trend in the upcoming days could indicate a slow restoration of confidence—especially if the price remains above the $110,000 support level,” it concluded.
As Cointelegraph keeps reporting, leveraged trading has led to many notorious failures, including the infamous trader James Wynn, who recently lost $4.8 million on a single bet last week.
Defining moment for Bitcoin dominance
Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market cap has regained attention as traders become increasingly restless.
Related: Bitcoin’s next rally will begin once OGs finish selling: Analysts
After October’s volatility, which heavily impacted altcoins, Bitcoin’s market dominance has stabilized — but challenges loom ahead.
“Bitcoin Dominance has confirmed a loss of its Macro Uptrend, validating the onset of a new Macro Downtrend,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital remarked, sharing an accompanying chart on Thursday.
“Bitcoin Dominance has effectively transformed both the Uptrend (light blue) and 60% (black) levels into new resistances. Furthermore, the ~64% threshold is becoming a new resistance level.”
Dominance was measured at 59.6% at the time of writing, having surged to 63.5% on Oct. 10. As Cointelegraph reported, market analyst Rekt Capital considers the vicinity of 70% to be classic reversal territory.
“Having shifted these previous supports into new resistances, Bitcoin Dominance appears set to enter a new Macro Downtrend in the long term. This condition holds if those levels continue to serve as resistance against any limited upside that BTCDOM may display in the interim,” he clarified.
“Going forward, it’s likely that failing to maintain the green 57.68% level as support could initiate a major Altseason.”
The extent of the altcoin decline is underscored by a collection of Binance’s top 50 altcoin futures, which remains below levels seen prior to the 2022 crypto bear market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
