Bitcoin is nearing a pivotal resistance area of the cycle, and well-known crypto analyst Trader Mayne indicates that the upcoming days will be crucial in determining if bulls regain momentum or if the rally falters, resulting in a lower high.
Summary
- Bitcoin’s success in surpassing the significant confluence zone between $98K and $100K will influence whether the market can make a final upward move before the year ends or if it will revert to a broader downtrend.
- “This remains the critical area for me,” Trader Mayne asserts.
- A definitive break of the $98K–$100K range could change the odds—and potentially spark the final major rally of the cycle.
Bitcoin has returned to its yearly opening level following what Trader Mayne referred to as “a nice couple of trade opportunities” after hitting an $80,000 cycle low. The movement has shattered an “aggressive downtrend,” though the analyst pointed out that the real challenge lies ahead: a daily downtrend line intersecting with the previous price floor around $98,000.
This area coincides with a series of lower highs defining Bitcoin’s macro downtrend. Clearing it could signify the first significant change in high-time-frame structure since the all-time high near $125,000.
At this moment, Bitcoin has exhibited what Mayne describes as “relatively constructive” price action—higher lows are being formed, and a bullish structure break on the four-hour chart is in progress. However, the market has yet to create a higher high on the H4 chart. “I need follow-through,” he stated. “I need a higher high here.”
A Lower High Before the Next Bear Market?
Mayne reiterated that he assigns a 70%–80% likelihood to Bitcoin forming a lower high instead of a new all-time high. However, that probability “drops to 50–60%” if bulls reclaim $98K and breach the downtrend. He mentioned that this level would also confirm the weekly cycle low—setting the stage for what he believes will be the final rally of the four-year cycle prior to a bear market in 2026.
Key cycle catalysts, he noted, include the end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening, renewed expectations for liquidity, and sentiment shifts like Vanguard permitting IBIT purchases.
For bulls, an ideal scenario is a clear breakout: “I want to see price just go. I don’t want people to have time to get in.” Choppy consolidation around the yearly open could instead resemble a “bear flag,” increasing the likelihood that the lower high is already established.
Mayne highlighted two essential trendline guides: a break above the downtrend line indicates bullish continuation, while a break of the rising short-term trendline would suggest the structure is “cooked.”
Despite the short-term optimism, Mayne underscored the importance of caution. His personal strategy is to sell spot positions into strength—ideally near $100K or higher—before a more significant cyclical pullback that could bring prices down to the $50K–$60K range.
“Any sign of weakness at the yearly open, 98K, 100K, 105–110K—derisk, hedge, be ready to get the **out,” he advised.
If Bitcoin fails to break higher, he anticipates opportunities on the short side: “A bear market is just the inverse of a bull market…just invert the chart.”
Dollar Dynamics Align—for Now
Mayne noted that macro signals are favorable, pointing out that USD dominance is decreasing and the U.S. dollar index is refusing a crucial resistance level. “We want to see this make one more low. That’s the best case for stocks, for crypto, for everything.”
Bitcoin is positioned at its most significant resistance since reaching its peak. A decisive move through $98K–$100K could transform market structure, sentiment, and cycle dynamics simultaneously. Conversely, failure there may confirm that the top is already in place.
As Mayne articulated: “The bulls still have work to do. The bears are still in control.”
