Bitcoin is currently at a critical support level for this cycle, placing the market at what crypto analyst Dom (@traderview2) describes as a “fork in the road.” His assessment is straightforward: if Bitcoin fails to stabilize and regain crucial levels swiftly, it risks breaking the structure that has characterized this entire rally — leading him to anticipate a downturn.
“This is Bitcoin’s last opportunity to maintain this level and extend higher,” he stated during a live analysis stream on October 29. “If Bitcoin doesn’t find its footing here within the next week or two, I believe it will break down, and we might revisit the mid to low $90,000s.”
Bitcoin’s Critical Moment in the Staircase Rally
Dom’s primary expectation is not one of a classic crypto winter; he does not foresee an 80% decline. Rather, he emphasizes that the upcoming days will determine whether Bitcoin can safeguard the “staircase” pattern maintained throughout this cycle. Should that pattern falter, he predicts a controlled yet steady retracement — neither a crash nor a continuation.
“I don’t foresee us entering into a year-and-a-half bear market like before,” he remarked. “Those days are over… unless we face a severe recession comparable to the Great Depression.”
The critical price range he’s monitoring for Bitcoin lies around $111,000–$114,000, which he highlighted in relation to reclaimed resistance and VWAP levels. “Should it fail to regain that swiftly, we need to prepare for a significant breakdown, likely below $100K,” he noted. His initial breakdown target is approximately $98,500, coinciding with what he refers to as the 12-month rolling VWAP — “our bull market band this entire cycle.”
Below that level, he’s keenly observing whether buyers will step in with conviction or remain inactive. This response will influence whether $95,000 becomes a local wipeout and reset, or the beginning of something more severe.
He considers this moment “do or die” since, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin is not rebounding immediately from support. Dom notes that throughout the climb, Bitcoin adhered to a consistent pattern: breaking major resistance, retesting it, and then surging upward. “Whenever we overcame resistance, it became support,” he explained. “This pattern has been flawless throughout the cycle.”
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However, that behavior has shifted. Following the liquidation event on October 10 and the brief uptick around the Fed’s decision and Chinese headlines, Bitcoin has stalled. It surpassed resistance, then stagnated for “four or five months,” missed the opportunity to expand, and is now losing momentum at a level buyers previously defended vigorously.
“Somebody doesn’t see this as a bargain,” he said. “We’ve witnessed numerous bounces at the same price, yet buyers show little interest. What will prompt their interest? Logically, lower prices.”
This embodies classic auction theory for him. In robust uptrends, the first retest of a key level is eagerly bought up as participants perceive it as favorable. Now, he asserts, the order flow indicates hesitation instead of urgency. This is how tops form in crypto: not through one dramatic event but by buyers refusing to defend the same level for the fifth time.
He also pointed to shallow liquidity on major spot books. On Coinbase, he noted, “these order books are empty… nobody’s saving us down here.” He highlighted that there’s only minimal passive bid interest near $100,000 — “that’s just 170 Bitcoin. That’s not much” — and significant active selling pressure on Binance. “People are actively market selling… and we lack buyers to absorb that pressure.” His conclusion: this represents the precise setup that precedes swift declines if a key level falters.
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This vulnerability is not just theoretical. Dom asserts that the October 10 crash illustrated crypto’s dependence on a small number of market makers. “We essentially slipped through an empty order book,” he remarked. “It highlights how fragile crypto truly is… If their risk systems indicate ‘Hey, we’re not going to quote this,’ markets will crash as they did.”
No 80% Crash This Time
Nonetheless, Dom does not belong to the “cycle is over forever” faction. He believes the market has undergone structural change and that many traders are still operating under a 2021 mindset in a 2025 market.
He contends that Bitcoin has evolved into an institutional tool, rather than solely a speculative retail asset. “This growth has been a steady staircase,” he mentioned. “The distinction… is that institution influence propelled this surge. I believe institutions were the primary drivers of this cycle… ETFs launched, leading to our steady ascension.”
This deliberate and controlled rise is why he dismisses the notion that Bitcoin will experience the classic -80% drawdown following its peak. He describes the new influx of money as “parked capital” — investments from ETFs, corporate treasuries, allocators, and “financial advisors, 401k money,” which are not subject to panic-selling with each 5% dip. “They’re not contacting you frequently saying, ‘Oh, it’s down 5%. Let’s sell,’” he noted.
Additionally, he pointed out that this cycle only barely doubled the previous all-time high rather than surging upward, and it even recorded new highs prior to the halving. In his perspective, if the upside explosion was subdued and institutional, then the downside is likely to be similarly muted and institutional.
As of this writing, BTC was priced at $110,280.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
