Bitcoin anticipates an ‘Uptober’ surge despite soaring fear levels.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to its lowest point since March, igniting new worries about investor sentiment even as Bitcoin and Ethereum strive for a rebound.

Data from CryptoQuant analyst JA Maarturn, published on Sept. 29, indicated a shift from a neutral score of 40 in August to a fear level of 28. This index last hovered in this range in March when Bitcoin was around $80,000.

In the meantime, the notable downturn in sentiment coincided with significant sell-offs of prominent assets. Last week, both Bitcoin and Ethereum fell beneath critical psychological benchmarks of $110,000 and $4,000, increasing uncertainty in the market.

However, this downturn was brief. As of the latest update, Bitcoin has bounced back to $114,000 while Ethereum is trading above $4,100, suggesting that the panic selling has transitioned into a more stable market.

Market Bottom?

Asset manager Bitwise suggested that the fear-driven atmosphere could indicate a bottoming phase.

They stated:

“Last week, sentiment reached ‘extreme fear’ levels on two occasions during the day; however, Bitcoin held relatively steady around ~$108k, a level that corresponds with the short-term holder cost basis—providing strong support for Bitcoin as sellers are becoming increasingly exhausted.”

The firm also noted that despite the turbulence of last week, Bitcoin is still up nearly 3.7% in September. This is particularly significant as September is typically the weakest month for the leading cryptocurrency.

Conversely, the final quarter usually yields robust gains, with November consistently being the most profitable month for Bitcoin.

According to Bitwise, this historical trend makes the current weakness appear more like an opportunity rather than a red flag.

Data from Glassnode further supports this claim, revealing that short-term holders are currently realizing net losses—a situation that has historically marked reset points prior to renewed accumulation. Periods of sell-off, where recent buyers sell at a loss, often lay the groundwork for longer-term rallies.

Bitcoin Gears Up for Uptober

Given the resilience of the flagship digital asset, crypto trading firm QCP suggests that BTC traders are hopeful for an “Uptober” surge.

The firm indicates that a sense of optimism has reemerged in the perpetual futures market, where leveraged longs are returning after last week’s liquidations.

QCP noted that Bitcoin’s open interest has increased from $42.8 billion to $43.6 billion. Simultaneously, funding rates are still positive, and positioning on platforms like Hyperliquid has shifted decisively back to long positions.

However, the firm cautioned that a sustained uptrend will only be validated if BTC surpasses the $115,000 level. They added:

“Options markets reflect this indecision, with put skew and open interest in BTC and ETH gradually normalizing as traders regain their confidence.”

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