Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a “parabolic” movement as a traditional volatility indicator hits new all-time lows.
Key points:
Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth indicator suggests a potential price surge for BTC by the end of the year.
BandWidth sidestepped a “red” signal despite the recent dip in BTC prices.
Traders are looking for further confirmation of a sustained market recovery.
Bitcoin Bollinger BandWidth signals “parabolic leg up”
In an X thread on Wednesday, macro strategist Gert van Lagen highlighted an important signal from Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth.
Bollinger BandWidth assesses the percentage difference between the upper and lower Bollinger bands, serving as an early indicator for BTC price volatility.
Data from sources including Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that this difference is currently at its lowest on monthly timeframes.
Historically, BandWidth seldom drops below 100 on its scale, but each time it does, it has resulted in a sharp BTC price reaction.
“In the past, whenever this occurred, Bitcoin experienced a direct parabolic leg up,” Van Lagen noted.
“No red signal has appeared in preceding months…”
An additional chart illustrates earlier instances of such parabolic outcomes. The last “green” signal emerged at the beginning of November 2023, resulting in BTC/USD doubling in just four months.
Van Lagen went on to discuss his projections for BTC prices, which include a potential final push to new highs before the onset of Bitcoin’s next bear market.
“This scenario resembles GOOGL before its last blow-off wave, just before the 2008 financial crisis. A series of lower highs on the Bollinger Bandwidth is broken to trigger subsequent bearish high-timeframe volatility,” he stated.
Is it too early to celebrate?
Bitcoin traders are not fully convinced by market strength this week, despite tentative recovery signs.
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘more reliable’ RSI variant hits bear market bottom zone at $87K
$BTC 1W
Still just a breakdown & retest scenario until proven otherwise. Still going to plan.
Volume is low, MACD/RSI needed a reset on 1D and below, + we dropped 45k with no bounce.
I wouldn’t get loud on calling a bottom quite yet. https://t.co/VW0b0VF8IF pic.twitter.com/Rerl1KTvOW
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) December 2, 2025
On Wednesday, BTC/USD achieved its highest levels in over two weeks, reaching toward $94,000 amidst rumors of a pro-crypto U.S. Federal Reserve chair.
“The price has established a higher high and higher low, indicating that the market structure is back to bullish on this timeframe,” trader Daan Crypto Trades noted in an X post.
“However, for this to gain traction, I need to see it maintain above this current price range.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, the current price zone is crucial for the 2025 yearly candle, as BTC/USD began the year at $93,500.
“Bitcoin has a month to achieve 2% upside to finish above the ~$93,500 Four Year Cycle level and close the year with a green candle,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital mentioned on Tuesday.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
