Mike Rychko, a researcher at prediction market infrastructure provider Azuro, believes that prediction markets are gaining traction in mainstream society — and the data seems to support his view.
In a Thursday X post, Rychko claimed that prediction markets are stepping into reality beyond crypto, and their increased accessibility is likely to lead to their success as the first decentralized finance (DeFi) product to achieve widespread adoption.
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko noted. “But ‘87% chance Mamdani wins’ — that’s a language everyone understands.”
He also stated that “humans are inherently lazy” and desire a “clear, digestible signal,” emphasizing that prediction markets fulfill this need by transforming complex predictions into straightforward data points.
“That simplicity is exactly why prediction markets will achieve mass adoption quicker than most DeFi projects ever have.”
Earlier this month, crypto-backed prediction market Polymarket secured a $2 billion investment from the NYSE parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, at a valuation of $9 billion.
Reports in early September indicated that Polymarket is aiming for a US launch that could value the company at up to $10 billion, following the appointment of the US President’s son to its board.
Established in 2020, Polymarket enables users to bet with stablecoins on real-world events, ranging from elections to sports results. The platform saw a surge in popularity during the 2024 US presidential election, experiencing record-breaking activity and trading volumes.
Prediction markets enter the zeitgeist
Rychko observed that prediction markets have achieved unparalleled levels of visibility in mainstream media lately. Prediction market and Polymarket rival Kalshi’s New York City display, showcasing a live feed of the market dedicated to the city’s mayoral election, has garnered significant attention, with the video attracting nearly 13 million views on X alone.
Rychko characterized the display as “a public indicator” and “a real-time reflection of collective belief.” “Just as stock tickers epitomized the financial landscape of the 80s, prediction tickers are beginning to shape the informational economy of the 2020s,” he expressed.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the US operating under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. The platform was recently featured on the renowned animated series South Park, a cultural cornerstone, in an episode centered on US President Donald Trump.
Related: NYSE parent invests $2B in Polymarket at $9B valuation
Prediction markets see major growth
Although Kalshi is not a crypto-based platform, it operates in a market segment that has been largely invigorated by a crypto initiative.
Polymarket gained prominence in late 2024 as its marketplace during the United States presidential elections captured substantial interest and funding. The service reached its record high daily active wallets at the start of 2025 — surpassing 72,600 on January 19, according to Dune data.
The all-time peak for transactions on the platform was recorded on December 27, 2024, with nearly 590,000 transactions within a single day. While the platform has not returned to these levels, it continues to experience strong usage. This month, Polymarket processed more than $1 billion in trading volume, bringing its cumulative total over $15.7 billion, according to Dune.
Related: Nobel Peace Prize bets on Polymarket under scrutiny: Report
This trend is clearly observable when assessing the total value locked on Polymarket. According to DefiLlama, the protocol now oversees over $194 million — a decrease of 62% from the nearly $512 million recorded during the peak of US Presidential election betting, but an increase of 2,325% compared to the $8 million it held exactly a year ago.
Rychko emphasized that this consistent activity highlights the attractiveness of prediction markets as DeFi’s most relatable product — one that combines cultural significance with real-world financial engagement.
Magazine: Trump-Biden bet led to obsession with ‘idiotic’ NFTs —Batsoupyum, NFT Collector
