Analysts predict that Bitcoin could be valued at half of gold’s worth by its next halving, expected in 2028, estimating the cryptocurrency at $644,000 based on the recent climb in gold prices.
“We believe Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market capitalization after the next halving,” stated Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, in an X post on Monday.
Gold futures reached a historic high of over $4,000 per ounce as traders flocked to the asset, traditionally regarded as a safe haven. Sigel remarked that this record pricing “suggests an equivalent value of $644,000 per [Bitcoin].”
While crypto analysts have frequently compared Bitcoin (BTC) to gold, the latter has outperformed Bitcoin this year, gaining 50% amid growing uncertainty from political events, a weakening US dollar, and fluctuating US tariffs.
Young investors favor Bitcoin
Sigel pointed out that younger investors are opting for Bitcoin as a store of value, which traditional investors typically associate with gold.
“Approximately half of gold’s valuation is attributed to its role as a store of value rather than demand for industrial or jewelry use, and surveys indicate younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly choose Bitcoin for that purpose,” he said.
Analyst Jordi Visser remarked in June that younger generations perceive the financial system as “deteriorating every year,” suggesting that their demands for increased public spending could support Bitcoin’s price.
Gold may continue to rise
Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt claimed that gold still has potential for growth despite reaching a peak.
“Gold could rise significantly before any substantial correction,” Brandt stated on X Monday. “How much higher? No idea!”
“But I am convinced that those who are fully committed buyers at these levels will need significant financial resources in the future,” he added.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Monday, surpassing $126,000 for the first time, although Bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff noted that despite Bitcoin’s peak, “it’s still about 15% below its all-time record” when valued in gold.
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“Bitcoin needs to rise to approximately $148K to equal its record high priced in gold,” he added.
“I still believe it’s premature for Bitcoin enthusiasts to be enthusiastic about the rally. Until Bitcoin sets a new high priced in gold, it’s merely a bear market rebound,” he said.
However, Joe Consorti, the head of growth at Bitcoin custodian Theya, expressed that Bitcoin’s “fair value floor has been raised to $1.34 million” with the rise in gold.
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