As the Bitcoin (BTC) price stabilizes below the crucial $90,000 support threshold, the discussion surrounding the possible emergence of a new bear market is intensifying among industry experts and market analysts.
The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading around $87,370, witnessing a drop of more than 30% from its peak of over $126,000, prompting comparisons to previous market trends, especially those seen in December 2021.
Fractal Patterns Resurface
On December 24, 2021, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $51,700, reaching a local high before it fell to $34,000 by January 24, 2022. This decline constituted a notable 34% drop within just one month.
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A market analyst has utilized a fractal model based on that earlier sell-off to interpret Bitcoin’s current positioning. This analysis suggests a potential path toward a $70,000 valuation in the near term.
The analyst contends that, considering the current price trends and market conditions, this outlook is credible and suggests an approximate 20% further decline for Bitcoin if similar patterns repeat.
Nevertheless, uncertainty persists regarding whether this scenario will transition into a recovery above critical price levels or lead into an extended bear market as we approach the first quarter of 2026. Consequently, views among analysts vary significantly.
Expert Predicts ‘Bitcoin Supercycle’ Ahead
CryptoKaleo, another influencer on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), suggests that the current market conditions resemble those from the fall of 2020.
Both situations saw Bitcoin breaking below a vital support level established after significant market downturns, resulting in a “mini-bart” price action where it retraced almost all prior gains before settling at a new baseline.
During the recovery following the COVID-19 market collapse in 2020, traditional equities, notably in the tech sector, outperformed Bitcoin significantly, leading to perceptions of the cryptocurrency’s diminishing relevance.
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Today, as stock markets frequently achieve new all-time highs, a similar narrative is emerging, with some commentators suggesting that Bitcoin appears stagnant while altcoins lack momentum.
Despite this, CryptoKaleo maintains a positive outlook, believing the current market condition deviates from the traditional four-year cryptocurrency cycle.
Rather than a prolonged bearish trend, he forecasts that Bitcoin’s ascent to new all-time highs in 2026 will trigger an exciting “supercycle,” marked by sustained growth, vigorous altcoin seasons, and a revival of retail interest in mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
