Altcoins remain in a challenging position as technical vulnerabilities and the rising dominance of Bitcoin hinder a robust shift into the wider market.
Overview
- Bitcoin dominance has surged into the 58–59% range, absorbing liquidity that typically drives an altcoin season.
- Most altcoins are trading significantly below their 200-day moving averages, indicating limited recovery momentum across key exchanges.
- On-chain valuation metrics indicate that Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase, reinforcing the concentration of capital in BTC rather than higher-risk assets.
Altcoins are facing difficulties, with technical pressures and capital flowing toward Bitcoin pushing any near-term prospects of an altcoin season further away.
A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain notes that the average altcoin is now approximately 27% below its 200-day simple moving average. This benchmark is closely monitored by traders and investors, and remaining this far below typically suggests prolonged weakness rather than a temporary dip.
The pressure is evident across major exchanges. The average altcoin is trading roughly 30.8% under its 200-day moving average on Binance, known for its deep liquidity. Other prominent platforms like Bybit, Gate.io, and KuCoin display a similar trend, indicating that this situation is not an isolated issue but a market-wide phenomenon.
Some exchanges, like OKX, have demonstrated slightly better performance, likely due to the types of tokens they offer or the way traders operate there. However, these areas of resilience haven’t been enough to alter the overarching trend.
In contrast, platforms like Kraken and Crypto.com have experienced sharper declines, highlighting how quickly liquidity can evaporate when market confidence wanes.
Bitcoin dominance continues to siphon momentum from altcoins
Bitcoin (BTC) currently commands approximately 58–59% of the overall cryptocurrency market following a consistent upward trend. This evolution has restricted capital flow into altcoins, resulting in short-lived rallies concentrated in a few coins.
As Bitcoin’s dominance crossed important thresholds and remained stable, earlier predictions of an impending altcoin season have largely diminished. If dominance continues to increase toward the 60% mark, altcoins may face further declines before any substantial recovery can begin.
This cautious perspective is bolstered by market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has consistently remained in fear or extreme fear territory, signaling that investors remain reluctant to engage in additional risk.
Furthermore, engagement and speculative trading have dropped by nearly half in recent weeks, indicating a significant decline in retail interest.
Even industry leaders have tempered their expectations. The CEO of Bitget recently remarked that an altseason might not materialize until 2025 or 2026, citing the limited potential for altcoins and a growing focus on Bitcoin and tangible asset exposure.
On-chain data reveals Bitcoin resetting, not altcoins rotating
A separate analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV_ sheds light on why capital continues to gravitate towards Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross for Bitcoin, which assesses market value against on-chain transaction activity, has recently fallen to very low levels near -0.58. This zone has previously appeared when prices decline faster than network usage.
Since then, the indicator has shifted back toward -0.32, suggesting that while Bitcoin is trading at a discount, it is gradually aligning with its underlying activity. Typically, this phase corresponds with steady accumulation rather than aggressive risk-taking. Historically, setups like this have favored Bitcoin initially, with altcoins usually lagging until sentiment improves and liquidity begins to return.
Currently, both technical and on-chain signals indicate similar trends. Bitcoin continues to dominate market interest, while altcoins face ongoing challenges. Unless dominance begins to wane and investors become more willing to assume risk, any meaningful recovery in altcoins is likely to remain on hold.
