Stellar (XLM) experienced a notable surge in July and has since remained within a range. The altcoin fell from the $0.40 mark in early September but has recovered nearly 8% over the last two weeks.
With XLM displaying cautious signs, we leveraged OpenAI’s ChatGPT-5 for an in-depth analysis of Stellar’s key on-chain metrics. The modules were provided various indicators including CMF, accumulation/distribution, whale data, and bull/bear power, among others.
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Here’s what the analysis uncovered.
XLM Price increased while whales remained in cash. Santiment indicates that the proportion of stablecoins held by wallets with over $5 million rose from 55% to 59% over the month. Nevertheless, XLM climbed to approximately ~$0.417 between Sept 11–13.
This combination suggests the rally was not driven by whales but likely by smaller investors and short covering. Consequently, the upward momentum stalled as that flow diminished.
Consistent spot accumulation despite weak money flow. On TradingView, the Accumulation/Distribution line rose to nearly 1.72 billion during this period, even as the CMF finished around −0.13, remaining below zero for much of mid-month.
Overall, the bullish A/D versus negative CMF divergence indicates quiet absorption on the spot, while broader liquidity leaned towards risk aversion.
Momentum remained soft into the local peak. The histogram (BBP) seldom showed sustained positives during the ascent to ~$0.417.
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Thus, XLM price recorded higher highs while momentum did not, illustrating a classic negative divergence.
Following the peak, the price maintained around ~$0.38–0.39, suggesting that strong hands defended dips even as momentum waned.
- $0.36–0.37 (retest support): This zone capped the mid-Sept pullbacks (Sept 17–18). The negative CMF and high whale stablecoin share allow for one more liquidity sweep. If it breaks below $0.37 on closes, a measured move might target ~$0.33 (approximately $0.04 under the shelf).
- $0.40–0.41 (pivot/magnet): Several rejections cluster here, and the mid-Sept high rests just above. With A/D still solid, the base case is a grind around $0.40 as supply is tested again. Sustained closes over $0.41 would confirm renewed demand rather than short covering.
- $0.45–0.46 (breakout objective): The Sept range spans ~$0.37–0.41 (~$0.04). A clean breakout and hold above $0.41 would project to $0.45±0.01.
For confidence, watch for CMF to turn positive and the whale-stablecoin share to recede. These will indicate a rotation from cash back into risk.
Bottom Line
September exhibited stealth accumulation and upside not led by whales. XLM price in October likely centers around $0.40–0.41.
A retest at $0.36–0.37 is feasible if risk appetite remains subdued, while $0.45–0.46 may open up if breadth and money flow turn positive.
