Polymarket Predicts 21% Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $150K by 2026

Traders on the Polymarket prediction market are currently assigning a 21% probability to Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year, even as many analysts forecast 2026 as a more promising bull year for the cryptocurrency.

In the latest market query regarding “what price will Bitcoin reach before 2027?,” Polymarket indicates a 45% likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $120,000, which remains below its historical peak.

The odds further decrease to 35% for the $130,000 level, with a 28% chance for $140,000, and only a 21% chance for $150,000.

The most conservative bet traders are currently making is at a mere $100,000 with an 80% confidence level.

While the reasons for this caution among users are not entirely clear, the conclusion of the four-year cycle might play a role, especially after BTC finished 2025 in the negative.

The four-year cycle has been a recurring market pattern linked to halving events, which have historically allowed chartists to predict future movements. As this trend comes to a close, it paves the way for the emergence of new trading patterns.

Related: Bitcoin options boom raises fears of capped BTC upside

Despite the pessimistic odds, some analysts are still predicting a bullish trend for Bitcoin.

In the upcoming weeks, President Donald Trump is expected to announce a new chair for the US Federal Reserve, a move that could benefit crypto as many anticipate a reduction in interest rates.

This expectation has already contributed to a rise in precious metals like gold and silver, both achieving new all-time highs in Q4 2025, despite digital assets in crypto remaining relatively stable.