In 2025, investors searching for both safety and growth unexpectedly agree that bitcoin has not succeeded in capturing either trade.
This perspective is clear in a year-to-date analysis of major, widely followed assets, such as stocks, gold, the 10-year Treasury note, bitcoin, industrial metals like copper, and the dollar index.
Gold, traditionally recognized as a safe haven and inflation hedge, has surged by 70% to a record high exceeding $4,450 per ounce, outpacing every other significant asset significantly. Copper, viewed as a gauge of global economic health, ranks second with a 35% increase, according to TradingView.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen by 17% and 21%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury note has seen a decline of 9%. Bitcoin has dropped by 6%. The dollar index, monitoring the U.S. dollar’s value against a selection of fiat currencies, has fallen nearly 10%.
The contrasting performance of gold, the ultimate fear hedge, and copper, an essential industrial element connected to AI, highlights a shift in investor preference towards tangible assets amidst macroeconomic and political uncertainties.
This year, demand for safe havens fueled by macroeconomic concerns, political tensions, fears of fiat currency depreciation, along with the AI boom and an improving regulatory climate under the Trump administration, were often cited as optimistic factors for BTC. However, these expectations have not been realized.
According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, this is chiefly because the crypto community promotes BTC as digital gold rather than an emerging technology.
“The evolving narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ has not fully convinced Wall Street investors. Many crypto narratives geared towards institutional investors now resemble passive allocation strategies, staking yields or long-term asset preservation, rather than compelling use-case-driven growth themes,” Thielen informed CoinDesk.
“Furthermore, there is little evidence suggesting a new group of investors is significantly drawn to passive crypto allocations, thus restricting new capital inflows,” he added.
Investors have turned to gold as a safe haven asset amid rising fiscal anxieties globally, politically driven tensions due to tariffs, fears of currency depreciation, and potential threats to the Fed’s independence.
Simultaneously, investors have overlooked BTC as a high-end tech investment, despite the AI boom benefiting a wide array of assets, including high-profile tech stocks and the unprecedented rally in base metals like copper.
The rise in copper prices has been propelled by the intersecting trends of electrification, digital infrastructure, and geopolitical tensions, compounded by slower growth in supply, as Geopolitical Monitor recently highlighted.
BTC lacks sovereign bid
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, attributed the uninspiring performance of BTC to the lack of sovereign demand for the cryptocurrency.
“Gold is the ‘hard asset’ for global central banks and sovereign entities. As sovereigns hedge their assets away from USD, gold has benefitted,” Magadini explained to CoinDesk. “Bitcoin, in contrast, is more ‘portable’ for individuals aiming to hedge their currency depreciation risks.”
He clarified that BTC, being more speculative, attracts high-risk-tolerant investors, such as retail investors, hedge funds, and investment firms, rather than established sovereign actors.
“At least, this is the case currently. Hence the substantial performance disparity in 2025,” he noted, indicating that the next upward movement in BTC necessitates sovereign adoption, as ETF acceptance, a positive regulatory environment, and digital asset treasury narratives have been fully integrated into pricing.
The rise in gold prices since 2023 has been partially spurred by increased purchases from central banks, particularly in Asian nations. The World Gold Council reported that global central banks acquired 254 tons of gold from January to October.
Building energy
While skeptics may interpret BTC’s struggle to capitalize on safe haven and AI trends as indicative of fundamental weakness, Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital, contends that the cryptocurrency is gathering momentum for a significant rise.
“Gold’s breakout is not a bearish signal for Bitcoin. Gold has led BTC by around 26 weeks, and its consolidation last summer corresponded with BTC’s current pause. The metal’s renewed vigor reflects a market increasingly anticipating further currency depreciation and fiscal pressures into 2026—a backdrop that has historically supported both assets, with Bitcoin responding with greater sensitivity,” Harland remarked.
He asserted that BTC’s consolidation signifies energy buildup rather than weakness.
“The more time BTC remains stable, the more potent the forthcoming movement tends to be—setting it up for a strong reaction as the depreciation trade accelerates,” Harland quipped.
Key takeaways for the global economy
Gold and copper are leading other assets, but gold’s stronger rally compared to copper indicates markets are hedging on two opposing futures: AI-driven growth (copper) versus concerns over systemic failure resulting from unsustainable fiscal debt (gold).
Crucially, gold’s superior performance illustrates that anxieties regarding the global financial system outweigh optimism about AI-led growth.
Even as gold and copper have reached record highs this year, the copper-to-gold ratio, a metric indicating global economic vitality and risk sentiment, has plummeted nearly 20% to its lowest point in over two decades, as per TradingView data. This serves as a warning sign of a “late-cycle” environment or “fragile expansion” driven by AI but restrained by fiscal, trade, and geopolitical uncertainties.
The key takeaway is the shift towards tangible assets. When gold and copper achieve record highs while the dollar index, Treasury notes, and stocks lag, it signals that the market no longer trusts the “promises of paper (fiat) currencies” or assets that solely rely on fiat liquidity.
