By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Crypto traders should prepare for possible volatility as the crucial U.S. nonfarm payroll report for November is expected to be released later today, along with October retail sales.
The employment statistics will provide additional insight into the degree of cooling in the U.S. labor market, influencing expectations regarding the Fed’s rate-cutting path.
“A disappointing NFP report could bolster the perception that the U.S. economy is noticeably slowing, thereby enhancing expectations for more aggressive monetary easing,” said Linh Tran, a senior market analyst at XS.com, via email.
Lower interest rates imply that weak data could stimulate risk-taking, potentially causing a rebound in bitcoin and the broader crypto market, especially since the pain trade — the transaction that is most costly for participants’ current positions — could be on the higher end, due to the ongoing bleak market sentiment.
As we approach the 8:30 a.m. release, the digital asset market continues to hold onto Monday’s losses, with total market cap stabilized around $3 trillion and bitcoin trading near $86,400, down almost 4% in the last 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes have both dropped more than 5%, and the CoinDesk bitcoin trend indicator (BTI) is indicating a significant downtrend for the fourth consecutive day. Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index for BTC remains within recent ranges of an annualized 40%-60%, signaling that the market is not yet anticipating significant movements in the next 24 hours.
BTC has encountered resistance from declining institutional demand for alternative investment vehicles. On Monday, U.S.-listed spot ETFs noted a net outflow of $357 million, the largest since November 20.
Moreover, the growth of stablecoins has dramatically slowed, indicating a decline in new fiat inflows into crypto.
“Even if absolute growth remains strong, the slowdown in stablecoin growth rates suggests a less optimistic liquidity environment for the crypto markets than many expected,” said crypto financial services platform Matrixport.
The delay in the U.S. crypto market structure bill might be contributing to the bearish sentiment.
In traditional markets, the Chinese yuan reached a two-month peak of 7.0417 per dollar. Crypto enthusiasts have long associated periods of a weak yuan with increased capital outflows from China to cryptocurrencies. Thus, it is likely that a strong yuan has the opposite effect, although direct correlations between the two assets are minimal.
However, a prolonged yuan rally could pull the dollar index (DXY) lower (similar to how a depreciating yuan is said to elevate DXY), thereby benefiting riskier assets, including BTC.
Meanwhile, gold’s rise has leveled off, retreating to $4,277 an ounce from $4,350 on Monday, just below the record high of $4,381.48 set on October 20. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly above 4%, despite last week’s Fed rate cut. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a detailed list of events happening this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Dec. 16, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly Prev. 4.75K.
- Dec. 16, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. November employment data. Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 40K; Unemployment Rate Est. 4.4%.
- Dec. 16, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global (Flash) U.S. Dec. PMI Composite (Prev. 54.2), Manufacturing Est. 52, Services Est. 54.1.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a detailed list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- Moons DAO is voting to appoint an Ecosystem Growth Officer to manage strategic partnerships and broaden the DAO’s reach. Voting concludes on Dec. 16.
- Dec. 16: Aerodrome will host an X spaces session with the head of global capital at Nasdaq.
- Unlocks
- Dec. 16: to unlock 1.9% of its circulating supply worth $19.88 million.
- Token Launches
- Dec. 16: Neiro Woofer Pack NFT collection launches in partnership with OpenSea.
- Dec. 16: Dash will be listed on Binance TR.
- Dec. 16: Magma Finance (MAGMA) will debut on Binance Alpha, Bitget, and other platforms.
Conferences
For a detailed list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.18% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $86,363.38 (24hrs: -3.07%)
- ETH is down 0.61% at $2,927.41 (24hrs: -6.72%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.19% at 2,696.69 (24hrs: -4.31%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has increased by 3 bps to 2.84%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0017% (1.8615% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.12% at 98.19
- Gold futures are down 0.66% at $4,306.80
- Silver futures are down 0.76% at $63.10
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.56% at 49,383.29
- Hang Seng closed down 1.54% at 25,235.41
- FTSE is down 0.3% at 9,722.49
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% at 5,744.63
- DJIA closed on Monday down 0.09% at 48,416.56
- S&P 500 closed down 0.16% at 6,816.51
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.59% at 23,057.41
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.14% at 31,483.44
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.17% at 3,178.81
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.2 bps at 4.18%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% at 6,809.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.3% at 25,266.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 48,778.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.25% (+0.29%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03386 (-1.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,047 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $36.86
- Total fees: 2.78 BTC / $244,700
- CME Futures Open Interest: 122,980 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 20.3 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 5.82%
Technical Analysis
- The chart reflects BTC’s daily price movements in candlestick format.
- Monday’s candle closed beneath the support level for the mini-bullish trendline connecting the lows from Nov. 21 and Dec. 1.
- This breakdown aligns with the broader downtrend observed since early October and suggests a potential re-test of recent lows around $80,000.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $250.42 (-6.37%), -0.36% at $249.51 in pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $75.46 (-9.60%), -0.99% at $74.71
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.54 (-8.26%), -0.61% at $24.39
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $42.43 (-2.55%), -1.44% at $41.82
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.70 (-7.12%), -0.47% at $10.65
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.71 (-10.39%), -0.88% at $13.59
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.28 (-7.56%), -1.24% at $15.09
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.91 (-15.07%), -1.38% at $11.75
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.93 (-11.25%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $13.56 (-10.97%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $162.08 (-8.14%), unchanged in pre-market
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $16.03 (-10.8%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.51 (-9.51%), -0.11% at $9.50
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.04 (-9.73%),+1.96% at $2.08
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.53 (-10.53%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$357.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.53 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$224.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.88 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.3 million
Source: Farside Investors
