On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve enacted a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, the third this year and in line with market expectations. As expected, Bitcoin surged past $94,000 on Monday; however, the media’s hawkish interpretation of the rate cut indicates a divided Fed regarding the trajectory of US monetary policy and the economy.
Considering the “hawkish” label attributed to this week’s rate cut, there is a possibility that Bitcoin’s price might dip following the news and remain stagnant until a new momentum driver comes into play.
CNBC reported that the Fed’s 9-3 voting reflects ongoing concerns among members about inflation resilience, suggesting that economic growth and the pace of future rate cuts could decelerate in 2026.
Per Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently confined within a precariously fragile range below $100,000, with price movements limited between a short-term cost basis of $102,700 and a “True Market Mean” of $81,300.
Glassnode’s data further indicated deteriorating on-chain conditions, declining futures demand, and sustained selling pressure, all contributing to BTC remaining below the $100,000 mark.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s structurally fragile range has left the market languishing below $100,000, accompanied by growing unrealized losses.
Realized losses have spiked to $555 million per day, the highest level observed since the FTX collapse in 2022.
Significant profit-taking by holders for over a year and the capitulation of leading buyers are hindering the reclaiming of the STH-Cost Basis.
Fed rate cuts may not significantly uplift Bitcoin’s price in the near term.
Time is running out for Bitcoin to recover $100,000
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s failure to exceed $100,000 underscores increasing structural tension: time is not on the bulls’ side. The longer the price remains constrained within this fragile range, the more unrealized losses accumulate, raising the risk of forced selling.
The relative unrealized loss (30-day-SMA) has escalated to 4.4%, signaling a transition to a higher-stress environment, after two years of staying below 2%. Despite BTC’s recovery from the Nov. 22 low to about $92,700, the entity-adjusted realized loss surged to $555 million per day, a level reminiscent of the FTX capitulation.
Concurrently, long-term holders (those with over a year of holding) have realized profits exceeding $1 billion daily, peaking at $1.3 billion. This dual dynamic of capitulation from major buyers and significant distribution from long-term holders has likely kept BTC under critical cost-basis thresholds, preventing it from reclaiming the $95,000–$102,000 resistance band that tops the fragile range.
Related: Bitcoin hikes volatility into ‘tricky’ FOMC as $93.5K yearly open fails
Spot-led rally meets declining BTC futures market
Data from CryptoQuant found that the crypto market usually experiences rallies prior to FOMC meetings; however, a notable divergence has emerged, with Bitcoin’s price increasing while open interest (OI) has fallen.
OI has decreased throughout the corrective phase since October, and even after BTC’s low on Nov. 21, it continued to decline despite the price hitting new highs. This indicates a rally driven mainly by spot demand rather than leverage-based speculation.
CryptoQuant noted that while uptrends led by spot demand are generally positive, sustainable bullish momentum historically requires increased leveraged positioning. Given that derivatives volumes are typically dominant, spot volume represented only 10% of derivatives activity, which could challenge the market’s ability to maintain this momentum if expectations around rate cuts diminish ahead of the meeting.
Related: Short the dip and buy the rip? What FOMC outcomes reveal about Bitcoin price action
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
