Bitcoin’s recent downturn may appear concerning, but K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde predicts December could signify a crucial shift for the cryptocurrency. Following its most significant drop since the last bear market, the firm identifies more indicators of a rebound than a further decline.
BTC has been pressured by a surge of selling, largely structural in nature. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had been major buyers in the market, became net sellers in November. CME futures activity has fallen to a multi-year low, indicating Traditional Finance’s reluctance. Bitcoin’s value has also lagged behind equities, hitting its lowest point against the Nasdaq since late 2024.
However, K33 perceives a market overly reacting to distant dangers while overlooking immediate signs of strength. “The case for material upside is far more plausible than an 80% drawdown repeat,” the firm stated in its December forecast.
They highlight several factors. Firstly, bitcoin is trading near significant historical support levels — approximately $70,000 to $80,000 — while the overall futures positioning remains cautious, not overheated. Perpetual markets display low leverage, and substantial liquidations have not occurred despite price pressures.
Long-term concerns, such as the risks from quantum computing, potential bitcoin sales by Strategy (MSTR), or instability at Tether, may sound alarming but are unlikely to emerge in the near future. K33 remarks that each of these threats is years away from becoming a real issue and shouldn’t influence current price movements.
Instead, the firm asserts that attention should be directed toward near-term developments. With favorable policy changes anticipated, including potential 401(k) access to crypto and a pro-crypto stance from the Federal Reserve, K33 sees structural potential increasing. Bitcoin’s existing valuation, they believe, reflects apprehension more than solid fundamentals.
At present, the market remains cautious. Yet K33’s outlook suggests that December could provide an opportunity for decisive positioning.
